Trump 2.0: Transatlantic relations at a crossroads

Trump is back. And so is his erratic shock and awe style of politics. One day he announces tariffs on Mexico and Canada, the day after he puts them on hold. Who knows what he’ll do next. Europe cannot afford to be paralysed by panic, divided by discord or swept up in performative outrage. Instead of being shocked and awed, the EU must stay calm, adapt and – most importantly – act.

The EU still has strong rules for the major digital platforms. However, under Donald Trump and his allies - above all powerful tech CEOs such as Musk and Zuckerberg - the USA is becoming an open opponent of these regulations. 

Brace for impact: Trump is moving full-speed ahead with his reactionary agenda. Signing over 100 executive actions, he has declared the border with Mexico a national emergency, lifted restrictions for oil and gas drilling, withdrawn the US from the Paris Climate agreement and the World Health Organization, weakened AI safety regulation, and more.

On the campaign trail in 2024 and since the November election, former president Donald Trump has not let up in denying the tie between fossil-fuel use and global warming. His supporters include the world’s largest petroleum companies and they are expecting to be paid back. But it won’t happen on ‘day one,’ as he claims. 

2024 was the year of the vote; more than 100 countries, representing nearly half of the global population, held elections this year. 2025 will be the year of political work, with governments implementing the policies and promises made. In this context, one central question is emerging: What is the role of the state and government in an era defined by profound political, economic and environmental challenges? And what capacity do governments have to deal with them?

After the elections in the United States on 5 November 2024, the Heinrich-Böll-Stiftung Washington, DC office reached out to the global network of Heinrich-Böll-Stiftung offices to hear how the second Trump administration will impact countries and progress on green issues across the world.

Under Trump and his radicalised Republican Party, the US is entering into an era of authoritarianism. In the country itself, there is a real threat of state control over private life issues and a political apparatus of persecution. In future, foreign policy will be shaped by Trump's relations with autocrats.

What a show these last couple of weeks have been. The return of Donald Trump, the rupture of the German federal government, and then the ridicule of the Commissioner-designate hearings in the European Parliament. Challenges are rising, but stable majorities in Europe are eroding. It is increasingly difficult to build consensus and have a stable centre of political gravity.

For Hungary’s prime minister, who has backed Donald Trump for years, a victory in the U.S. presidential election means more than a symbolic win – it could also deliver concrete advantages. In the short term, such a result would bolster Viktor Orbán’s position both internationally and domestically. However, differences in political priorities and in economic interests in particular could create friction between Washington and Budapest in the medium to long term. Given Trump’s unpredictability, there is no guarantee that Orbán’s promises – such as swift peace in Ukraine and an economic boom will come to pass.