E-paper

Trump 2.0 and European cohesion

Scenario implications for Ukraine and transatlantic security

By Rachel Tausendfreund and Roderick Kefferpütz

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Full paper.

Over the last three years, the transatlantic alliance has demonstrated a largely remark-able unity in its support for Ukraine. Though the support has often been less ambitious and slower than Kyiv has needed, it has at least enabled Ukraine’s continued resistance against Russian aggression.

As the war is soon to enter its fourth year, however, sup-port is eroding. And the future of US policy under President Trump is particularly uncertain. Given this context, this paper explores how the European Union and its Member States could adjust their Ukraine and NATO policies. We plot out Trump's potential administration policies on key questions related to support for Ukraine and NATO, as well as possible European responses and potential outcomes along the variables of unity and decisiveness.

This e-paper is an updated version of the publication “US elections and European cohesion” from October 2024 that contained scenarios for both a Harris and a Trump 2.0 administration". The initial scenarios were refined, tested and reviewed in an online workshop with foreign policy and security experts.

Check out the related e-paper US elections and European cohesion: Scenarios for green transitions and Transatlantic climate action, by Rachel Tausendfreund , Mareike Moraal and Loyle Campbell.

Check out our web dossier on the US elections 2024.