The 2024 re-election of Donald Trump as US president, and the realignment of US security strategy that is expected to follow fundamentally changes Europe’s security outlook. The EU cannot become Europe’s security provider, but it can, through its defence industrial policy, support the funding and organization of the rearmament effort.
This e-paper is an updated version of the publication “US elections and European cohe-sion” from October 2024 that contained scenarios for both a Harris and a Trump 2.0 administration. The initial scenarios were refined, tested and reviewed.
The EU's reactions to the current challenges in the areas of security and trade policy highlight that a resolute and coherent common European foreign policy depends on the political will of Member States and their willingness to overcome their differences. The aim must be for Europeans to jointly consider their international commitment across different policy areas and act accordingly in a strategic manner. But the institutional reforms of the past have not provided the necessary push forward. In this sense, the recommendations for action in this paper are to be understood primarily as a call to Member States to make better use of the existing scope for action within the EU treaties.
