After years of hesitation, the EU – driven by geopolitical shifts – is finally moving forward. The special summit in Brussels shows momentum in defence policy. But Europe remains vulnerable without a big step forward.
There are events that divide history into a before and an after. One of these events was the bizarre appearance of Donald Trump and his Vice President J.D. Vance, who humiliated Volodymyr Zelensky in the Oval Office on camera in a disturbing manner. Since then, Europe's security situation has deteriorated dramatically. Trump stopped all military aid for Ukraine, called NATO into question and left no doubt that Europe must expect the worst and defend itself from now on. Once again, it became clear that Trump's geopolitical actions follow the logic of the Greek historian Thucydides: The strong do as they please and the weak must submit to the will of the strong.
The good news in the midst of the gloomy global political situation is that the European reaction followed swiftly. At the London summit, which took place immediately after the scandal in the White House, the United Kingdom and France took the diplomatic initiative, showed solidarity with Ukraine and outlined a possible path to a temporary ceasefire. Berlin announced massive investments in defence. Macron called for a new strategic direction for Europe in a televised speech. And European Commission President von der Leyen presented the proposal for a European rearmament initiative ‘ReArm Europe’.
After years of hesitation and procrastination, the EU finally seems to understand that the Member States must invest in their common defence and not rest on the support of the USA. In times of crisis, the EU has repeatedly demonstrated its ability to act: Europe is capable of acting and has the potential for common strength.
The special European Council summit on 6 March 2025 marked an important turning point.
More money for defence, but is that enough?
First, the summit brought significant progress in funding for defence spending. The European Commission's ‘ReArm Europe’ proposal was welcomed. This makes it possible to use the escape clause in the Stability and Growth Pact to increase the national defence spending of EU Member States and provides for a defence loan of 150 billion euros. In total, the plan should mobilise up to 800 billion euros.
But one problem remains: most of the funding will be done via Member States. Although this is important, it is not enough. A common European financing initiative is missing. Fortunately, the European Council has instructed the EU Commission to develop an additional European funding component. This is a necessary step. Europe cannot afford for each state to arm itself in isolation.
And money alone is not enough. Coordination and joint procurement are needed. Europe must not only spend more, but also invest more wisely and, above all, jointly. A fragmented system in which each Member State pursues its own projects is inefficient and weakens Europe's defence capability. Money must not only be mobilised, but above all spent wisely and in a coordinated manner. Joint defence procurement is a key word here.
A defence union of the willing
Secondly, the summit showed that Europe can also move forward without Hungary. Once again, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán tried to block the European Council's conclusions on support for Ukraine. However, the EU institutions and Member States have learnt their lesson. If the Hungarian government does not co-operate, then conclusions can also be adopted without Budapest and Orbán can therefore be isolated by the other 26 Member States. The signal has finally been sent out in all clarity: the most important thing now is to strengthen the EU's ability to act and not to be impressed, scared off or stopped by the blackmail attempts of an authoritarian head of government who seeks proximity to Putin and Trump. That is why the ‘coalition of the willing’ is now crucial: a group of determined EU states that are prepared to take the lead, also in NATO together with the United Kingdom.
Thirdly, the special summit set priorities for European defence. Clear timelines and prioritisation are key here. In the short term, the focus must primarily be on military support for Ukraine. In the medium term, European deterrence capabilities must be strengthened. And in the medium to long term, wherever a possible US withdrawal would create new deficits, structural gaps must be closed and independent strategic capabilities established and expanded.
In addition to the focus on defence capabilities, it must also be about societal and democratic resilience. The Niinistö report ‘Safer Together’ presented in 2024 provides key impetus here, as the EU must not only strengthen its armed forces, but also its critical infrastructure, cyber security and the resilience of its societies.
Defence policy triple jump
The contours of a European Defence Union have been drawn. Its implementation will depend on sufficient and sustainable funding, joint coordination and defence procurement as well as an ambitious coalition of the willing.
Trump only understands the language of deals and strength. For Europe, this means that it must face him with unity and self-confidence. For in the logic of self-appointed kings, kneeling is not followed by respect, but only by increased contempt for those who kneel.
This is why a European repositioning must also include an equally resolute global positioning and search for strategic partnerships with countries that essentially share the core principle of value-orientated Western democracies.
In the sport of triple jumping, there are three phases: the hop, the step and the all-important jump. Since Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine, Europe has been waking up from a deep sleep in terms of security policy in precisely these phases. It must now make the all-important jump into the European Defence Union. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk put it in a nutshell when he emphasised that we are strong and must finally start to believe in it ourselves.
Important foundations for this were laid during the special summit. Now Europe must deliver. In two weeks, on 20 and 21 March, the EU heads of state and government will meet again. It will then become clear whether Europe will stay on course and resolutely pursue the plans for a European Defence Union.
This article was first published in German on boell.de.
Event on the topic:
Online discussion on Wednesday 19 March 2025 at 16:00 - 17:30 CET
Europe at a crossroads: Security, Defence, and the Polish EU Council Presidency
