Georgia and Russia: “On the same train” with the occupant

Donald Trump is negotiating with Vladimir Putin over the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine – and is demonstratively ignoring Ukraine’s interests. The consequences of a possible dictated peace extend far beyond Ukraine, as they cast considerable doubt on the idea of a rules-based world order, which was already only a partial order and characterized by double standards. 

According to a recent survey by CRRC Georgia, the majority of Georgians believe that an end to the war in Russia's favor will have a negative impact on Georgian-Abkhazian/Ossetian relations. Abkhazia and South Ossetia are effectively occupied by Russia, which recognized the territories that belong to Georgia under international law as independent states after the Russian-Georgian war in 2008. In general, many Georgians fear that Western appeasement towards Russia will further exacerbate the threat to their country.

Lacking Western security guarantees

Sadly, the global developments partly confirm the propaganda of the Georgian Dream, which was founded in 2012 by the oligarch Bidzina Ivanishvili, who made his fortune in Russia. The ruling party, which has portrayed itself as a guarantor of peace with the help of the conspiracy theory of a “global war party” that wants to drag Georgia into war, especially since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, is constantly rubbing it in. The Georgian Dream points out that the West denied Georgia a NATO Membership Action Plan and did not impose sanctions against Russia after Russia's war against Georgia in 2008 and its recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia as “independent states.” In its election campaign for the rigged parliamentary elections in 2024, the party contrasted destroyed Ukrainian cities with flourishing Georgian landscapes. 

The threat of a dictated peace in Ukraine seems to prove the Georgian Dream right. It is true that Western states were and are not prepared to provide security guarantees for Georgia. Whether Western military support is sufficient to protect the country from another Russian invasion, which is currently unlikely but not impossible, is questionable. Therefore, arguments in favor of a prudent Georgian policy towards Russia cannot be entirely dismissed.

Georgia is on the Russian train

However, anyone who describes the Georgian Dream's policy as “prudent” is falling into their propaganda trap, as it is not primarily a prudent policy that the Georgian Dream is pursuing. In fact, Georgia is not “on the same train” as Ukraine, which Foreign Minister Maka Botshorishvili recently presented as a success. In a television interview, she explained that Georgia had been put under pressure, but that it was now clear “how advantageous it would have been if Georgia had been on the same train as the current Ukrainian government, for example.” No, Georgia got on the Russian train. There are hard-nosed economic and power interests behind this.

Even though Georgian Dream has not yet agreed to restore diplomatic relations with Russia and regularly took a critical stance towards Russia on the international stage, the party has been pursuing a policy of normalizing relations with Russia since coming to power in 2012. According to a representative survey conducted by the International Republican Institute in November 2012, 94% of the population were in favor of dialogue with Russia at the time. In return, the Kremlin lifted the trade embargo on important Georgian export products in 2013, which Russia had imposed in 2006. Since then, trade relations have flourished. Russia's share of Georgian exports rose from 2 percent in 2012 to 10.8 percent in 2023 (and was even 14.5 percent in the meantime), while the Russian market is far ahead with 65 percent of Georgian wine exports. Georgia's economy has benefited, but this rapprochement has made it vulnerable again.

In addition to trade, anti-Western and increasingly openly pro-Russian groups have flourished in Georgia since 2012, partly with support from and links to Russia

Since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, bilateral economic relations have been further expanded. For example, since 2023, following the lifting of another Russian restriction imposed in 2019 in the context of protests in Georgia that were critical of Russia, air traffic between Georgia and Russia has been busy again. This happened despite the fact that Georgia, as an EU candidate country, is supposed to align itself with the foreign policy of the EU, which has sanctioned air traffic with Russia since the full-scale invasion. Georgia has not joined the European sanctions against Russia in other respects either. As if to say thank you, since 2023, and more comprehensively since 2024, there has once again been a simplified visa regime for Georgians who wish to travel to Russia or work there. 

In addition to trade, anti-Western and increasingly openly pro-Russian groups have flourished in Georgia since 2012, partly with support from and links to Russia. These groups repeatedly introduced illiberal discourses and Russian-style draft laws into Georgian society and parliament, which the Georgian Dream appeared not to support at the time. However, since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine and the granting of the EU accession perspective, long desired by the Georgian population, it can no longer be denied that the Georgian Dream itself is now pursuing an illiberal and increasingly authoritarian policy that is at least conducive to the interests of the Kremlin or has even been commissioned by it.

A domestic policy of Putin's dreams

The Georgian Dream also appears to be taking its cue from the Russian market when it comes to domestic policy issues. Georgia is following the Russian model: In 2024, the Georgian parliament passed a law branding civil society and independent media as “foreign agents” or, after a semantic change, as “organizations representing the interests of a foreign power.” The government also massively restricted the rights of LGBTQI people, using the Russian discursive repertoire on the protection of “family values” and children. It is of little help to the Georgian Dream as an excuse that European states such as Hungary have also adopted and further developed the Russian playbook. According to a new legislative initiative, Georgian civil society organizations will soon be able to apply for state funding. 

This procedure, which has parallels to the Russian “Presidential Grants Foundation,” raises fears that a system of tame organizations acting exclusively in the interests of the authoritarian government is also to be created in Georgia. Further repressive laws, which include the restriction of media freedom, political control of state theaters, and a tightening of the foreign agent law, are already in the parliamentary process. While the ongoing democratic protests in Georgia were initially brutally suppressed by the police, now the courts have taken over the crackdown.

The Kremlin is laughing up its sleeve: Russian propagandists and the foreign intelligence service are constantly spreading disinformation about alleged foreign masterminds behind the Georgian protests against the foreign agent law, the manipulated elections, and the anti-EU policy of the Georgian Dream. Konstantin Kosachev, Deputy Chairman of the State Duma, commented succinctly on the withdrawal of the Georgian delegation from the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe at the beginning of February, saying that the decision deserved “understanding and respect”. Georgia had “chosen a sovereign path of development that corresponds first of all to its national interests.” Regarding the further normalization of relations with Georgia, Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Galuzin stated that Russia was prepared “to go as far here as the Georgian side is prepared to go.”

The Kremlin has achieved all its goals – for now

With the help of the Georgian Dream, the Kremlin appears to have achieved its goals in Georgia. The EU has frozen the Georgian accession process due to the illiberal, authoritarian policies of the ruling party. Accession negotiations are only to be opened if the foreign agent law and anti-LGBTQI laws are withdrawn. The Georgian Dream has not been proactively pursuing NATO membership for some time, which is currently not up for discussion from a Western perspective either. 

Democratic developments in Georgia have been reversed. The interests of the Kremlin and the Georgian Dream, therefore, seem to harmonize splendidly. As early as 2006, the current Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze wrote in his doctoral thesis that Western donors had produced a “civil society of ‘Nationals1’” instead of an all-Georgian civil society and that the “danger of foreign intervention in politics or an impairment of state sovereignty...could not have been overlooked.”

But the Kremlin should not rejoice too soon. According to surveys, Russia is not increasingly viewed positively by the Georgian population, but rather perceived as the main enemy. The protests in Georgia in recent months – the largest since the country regained its independence in 1991 – spanning various population groups, professions, and regions have shown that the Georgian Dream cannot easily destroy democratic practices and simply deny the country's European future. One thing is certain: the next democratic spring in Georgia is sure to come – just like, at some point, the fall of the Putin regime.