Under Trump and his radicalised Republican Party, the US is entering into an era of authoritarianism. In the country itself, there is a real threat of state control over private life issues and a political apparatus of persecution. In future, foreign policy will be shaped by Trump's relations with autocrats.
Donald Trump's surprisingly clear election victory is shaking the core identity of liberal America: For the first time since 2004, a Republican Party candidate has won the most votes cast by the electorate. In constituencies across the country - including in traditionally Democratic states, the so-called Blue States - fewer eligible voters cast their vote for the Democratic Party than four years ago.
The defeat suffered by the Democrats is comprehensive this time. They can no longer rely on receiving a majority of the votes cast - even though that does not necessarily mean a political majority in the Electoral College.
Even if the election defeat is part of a global trend - in the super election year 2024, governing parties across the political spectrum have lost a massive amount of support - the crucial question remains: Why was Trump able to prevail with his extensively radicalised Republican Party?
Regardless of whether the more than 73 million Americans actually support Trump and his fascist agenda or simply wanted to teach the Democrats a lesson: The Republicans are now in power. With their majority in the Senate and possibly also in the House of Representatives, Trump in the White House and like-minded right-wing judges in the Supreme Court, a new era of authoritarianism is beginning in the USA. Thereby turning away from the liberal world order from which Europe has benefited so hugely since the Second World War.
Project 2025: America's right is ready for power
Not only do the Republicans have the majority of voters behind them this time. Unlike eight years ago, they were also able to prepare for their upcoming term of office at an early stage. As part of Project 2025 - a concept for the radical restructuring of the US government apparatus - launched in 2022, dozens of organisations and experts from the conservative establishment, in close cooperation with radical figures such as Stephen Miller and Russell Vaught, have formulated a comprehensive government programme for the first 180 days and created a database of politically compliant personnel.
The drafts for numerous presidential emergency measures are ready to go. This could set in motion the rigorous migration policy with mass deportations, for example. The marching orders for each ministry are spelled out in a 900-page book, with a range of courses known as the Presidential Administration Academy designed to train inexperienced and unqualified staff in order to familiarise them with government work within a short period of time.
A powerful political persecution apparatus will emerge in Washington
Something else is also clear: This time, there will no longer be the critical voices from the government and military that were able to slow Trump down during his first term in office. At the height of the #BlackLivesMatter protests in the summer of 2020, Trump wanted to use the US military against the demonstrators. At that time, the generals prevented the incumbent president from doing so. Trump's former defence secretary and other members of the military have since turned their backs on him.
The future president will not shy away from enacting the Insurrection Act, which allows military force to be used against civilians in the event of political uprisings. The US military will then also have to violently suppress peaceful protest and civil society resistance, for example in Washington, D.C.
That is extremely dangerous. After all, Trump's political consciousness is strongly characterised by a desire for revenge, as repeatedly demonstrated during his campaign appearances. In the past, American presidents have been reluctant to exert obvious political control over the Department of Justice. In Trump's second term, the Department of Justice is now to be transformed into a political enforcement body for the President. The public prosecutors are to be used to prosecute political opponents. This applies not only to prominent democrats, but also to social protest movements, climate activists and other advocates of liberal values. This strategy is a familiar one from other authoritarian systems: Making an example of someone is often enough to scare a lot of others and break down resistance.
The aim is to break the protective autonomy of the states
Since the 1960s, the conservative movement in the USA has campaigned to limit the power of the government at the federal level and strengthen the autonomy of the states. Today, the Republican agenda aims to disempower all those federal agencies that are supposed to ensure equal opportunity and protect Americans from the negative consequences of the market economy. For example, Republican members of congress are planning a comprehensive dismantling of regulations and requirements in the areas of environmental and consumer protection, labour protection and antitrust laws.
In addition, state control of private life issues and social norms is set to be significantly broadened. With the help of the federal authorities, the coexistence of Americans is to be organised along Christian, arch-conservative values. And science and education policy are also to be subordinated to religious and nationalist ideologies in future in order to counteract the "wokism" of left-wing society. The censorship policy of Republican Governor Ron DeSantis from Florida, which bans certain texts and authors that convey a critical perspective of American history, serves as a blueprint here.
State control of private life issues and social norms is set to be significantly broadened.
Last but not least, the Republicans also want to extend the state's grip on reproductive rights: In the medium term, abortions are to be criminalised throughout the country. In this context, the Centers for Disease Control, an agency of the US Department of Health and Human Services for the protection of public health, will in future be able to systematically record pregnancies throughout the country. This would create the basis for the criminal prosecution of abortions.
Large parts of liberal America have now come to terms with the idea that the living conditions and basic rights of Americans differ fundamentally depending on which part of the divided country they live in. If the Republican plan works, however, people in liberal regions such as California, New York and Massachusetts will also experience concrete restrictions of their civil rights as well as the pursuit of right-wing policies on issues such as gun control, budget and education policy.
Dismissals to ensure obedience
Numerous political projects of the first Trump cabinet failed due to the refusal of the civil service to implement measures that were outside the remit of the authorities, contradicted scientific assessments or were simply illegal.
But the Republican Party now wants to change that: With the help of an executive order from Trump, a large number of civil servant positions could be reclassified as political positions. Last year, the Biden administration raised the administrative hurdles for such a political purge. The question therefore remains as to how quickly and to what extent the next president will actually be able to transform the planned 50,000 civil servant positions. However, the intimidating effect this will have on the administrative apparatus if even a few thousand civil servants lose their jobs for hesitating to implement Trump's authoritarian plans should not be underestimated.
At the same time, thousands of people voluntarily left the administration during the last Trump administration - with the State Department alone losing 60% of its civil service ambassadors. The exodus of experienced staff is already beginning in Washington.
The New Right in Silicon Valley will work closely with Trump's government
Much has changed since the close partnership between Barack Obama and Silicon Valley in 2008 and the hopes during the Arab Spring that digital networking would have a democratising effect. These days, there is a new elite of right-wing tech founders and investors who are putting their platforms at the service of anti-liberal movements. They hope to make substantial profits under Trump, identify with the illiberal ideology of the American right and support the idea of a leader who is not restricted by democratic norms or the rule of law. As soon as the election result was known on the night of 5th November, the tech plutocrats were virtually falling over each other to congratulate Trump and Elon Musk and offer their cooperation.
Musk is the poster child of these new right-wing tech entrepreneurs. He invested large sums of his own money, took over the coordination of the Trump campaign on the ground and ensured that Trump and his supporters at home and abroad were able to spread disinformation on X. This played a key role in distorting the political discourse and thus influencing the election.
Musk is likely to have secured a key position in the government. From there, he will be able to counteract the EU's regulatory efforts and support autocrats worldwide. While Project 2025 plans to cut funding for public media, Musk will advocate subsidies and tax incentives for social media. Together with other Silicon Valley companies, the digital surveillance of citizens could be intensified, especially during demonstrations. In future, the unregulated use of AI could also become part of normal political discourse, allowing reality to be easily and effectively distorted and personal truths to be circulated virally.
Digital surveillance of citizens could be intensified, especially during demonstrations.
The world order is being redefined
The multilateral institutions founded in the post-war period - the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund, the entire UN system - were intended to bring the global community together and reflect anti-fascist values. These institutions created spaces in which both European states and countries from the Global South were able to influence international processes. For Trump and his extreme right-wing advisers, however, the political ideology of multilateralism is both alien and far too cumbersome. Their credo: Why rely on diplomacy when you can buy direct influence and support like-minded leaders through bilateral deals?
At the same time, the Trump administration will use the global stage of the United Nations to spread right-wing ideologies and anti-Chinese rhetoric around the world.
In future, America's role in the world will be shaped by Trump's relationships with autocrats - and by right-wing interest groups who see the US president as a vehicle for their own goals.
Trump maintains a close friendship with Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu - with whom he spoke on the phone three times in the first week after the election. This and the strong lobbying by right-wing religious voter groups could lead to Trump not only supporting the complete destruction of the Gaza Strip - but also accepting that the high number of civilians displaced and killed will continue to rise and that humanitarian aid for the population will be blocked. Trump could also encourage the expansion of new settlements and annexation of the occupied territories. At the same time, however, he has an aversion to becoming involved in military conflicts and announced during the election campaign that he wanted to see a swift end to the military conflict once he took office.
Bilateral deals instead of multilateralism
Ending the conflict in Gaza as quickly as possible - at least in the sense of ending the fighting - would also be in the interests of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman, who is also a confidant of the future US President. Public discontent in the Gulf states over the victims in Gaza threatens to destabilise the region. And it stands in the way of any prospective normalisation of relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia, which Saudi Arabia is also seeking for economic reasons.
The closeness between Donald Trump and Russian leader Vladimir Putin also became apparent in the first few hours after the US election. Both signalled publicly that they want to talk about possible "peace negotiations" for Ukraine. All the indications suggest that the objectives of these negotiations would be entirely in line with Putin's aspirations: Russia should be able to keep the areas it has occupied, with Ukraine refraining from joining NATO.
A look at Trump's foreign policy relations and announcements shows: In a second term, critical foreign policy decisions are very likely to be determined by bilateral deals, both at personal and state level. Even for China, Trump's re-election could represent an opportunity: According to experts, Chinese President Xi Jinping has realistic hopes that Trump could abandon the alliance with Taiwan. However, other aspects of the tough anti-China policy are likely to remain. At the same time, Taiwan's insecure government is banking on the opportunity to gain the support of the new US President through more arms purchases from the USA.
Critical foreign policy decisions are very likely to be determined by bilateral deals.
Even during Trump's first term in office, it was difficult to tell where friendship ends and corruption begins in terms of foreign policy. At the time, foreign government officials, including those from Saudi Arabia, Qatar and China, spent more than $750,000 at Trump's luxury hotel in Washington, D.C. - mostly at times when critical foreign policy issues were at stake. This tendency in Trump's political actions will also provide autocrats with new opportunities to influence American foreign policy in their own interests over the coming years.
The future role of democratic forces
When the liberal world order came into being, the Second World War had just ended. Today's crises are not the same. Nevertheless, with global inflation, the escalating climate crisis and the rise of authoritarian forces, we are once again at a global turning point.
In the USA, the Democrats are now struggling to find answers and ways out of the current situation. They will have to deal with the causes of the defeat, seek new leadership and find ways to rebuild a once strong liberal alliance. In view of the fundamental political shifts we are currently experiencing, democratic forces face a twofold challenge:
Firstly, a precise analysis of the new political situation is needed, including a clear, unsparing view of the political opponent. The new Trump administration in the US will have little in common with the previous Republican administrations that shaped the transatlantic alliance in the past. Democratic forces will have to act in a dialectical manner - i.e.: clearly identify interests and transgressions of red lines - but also seek ways of negotiating in favour of democratic values, socio-ecological transformation and European interests. There is neither time nor space for wishful thinking or naïve nostalgia.
The alliance that stabilised the liberal consensus in US society for many years did not hold this time. Democratic alliances are also crumbling in other countries where sight is gradually being lost of the common political vision.
The democratic forces also need a fresh start to move the liberal project away from a defensive position. This requires absolute clarity about what constitutes the liberal vision in the 21st century. One thing is certain: It has to be big and honest so as to give people the prospect of a better life without ignoring reality. At the same time, it requires self-confidence and a fighting spirit to defend the democratic project against a radical right in the throes of victory.
This article first appeared in German here: de.boell.org.
