The 2024 re-election of Donald Trump as US president, and the realignment of US security strategy that is expected to follow fundamentally changes Europe’s security outlook. The EU cannot become Europe’s security provider, but it can, through its defence industrial policy, support the funding and organization of the rearmament effort.
This e-paper is an updated version of the publication “US elections and European cohe-sion” from October 2024 that contained scenarios for both a Harris and a Trump 2.0 administration. The initial scenarios were refined, tested and reviewed.