Call for papers | Study: Retrospective analysis of EU foresight reports

• Working title: The EU’s futures – Present and past: What we can learn from a retrospective analysis of EU foresight reports
• Deliverable: Research and write study on past foresight reports by EU institutions. Present findings at a (digital) round-table.
• Audience: EU policymakers and media, think tanks, academia
• Format: 20-25 pages (A4 format), including at least two charts or infographics that illustrate key findings; Heinrich-Böll-Stiftung EU | Global Dialogue will provide graphic design and publication in its corporate design
• Timeline: Please send your application by Thursday, 1 October 2026, EOB; if accepted: a final draft after a feedback loop with Heinrich-Böll-Stiftung EU | Global Dialogue is to be handed in by Friday, 18 December 2026
• Budget: Only offers of up to 10.000 € including VAT, excluding costs for layout, graphic design and proofreading, will be considered

Context

The European Commission ranks itself among the “globally leading public administrations in its use of strategic foresight”.1 Starting in 2020, it has produced annual Strategic Foresight Reports, which “inform policy priorities and long-term policy thinking”. The Council of the European Union’s Analysis and Research Team (ART) has also been publishing a yearly foresight paper, “The Forward Look”, since 2020. These papers reflect on “the events and trends that are likely to affect the work of the EU Council and European Council during the coming year”.2 Inter-institutional foresight activities include ESPAS (European Strategy and Policy Analysis System) which has produced four Global Trends reports (2012, 2015, 2019, 2024). These reports – to varying degrees – inform EU-policy making. On a meta level, this compilation of reports constitutes a record of how EU institutions have imagined the future(s) over the past 10-15 years.

Aim

A retrospective analysis of select EU foresight reports will serve two purposes. First, the analysis will contribute to improving future foresight through feedback. As futurist Florence Gaub writes: “Only […] regular review will improve foresight capabilities”.3 Therefore, the paper should ask: What did foresight reports (not) highlight regarding foreign/security policy at different points in time? How have the trends described and the underlying assumptions held up? Why have some aged better than others?

Secondly, these reports speak as much to the moment of their writing as to the future. The retrospective analysis can “dissect out … the horizon of possibilities” that was thinkable at a particular point in time.4 The paper should, thus, contextualise the reports and against that backdrop ask: what characterises the different future expectations in these reports. How do they evolve? What do they reveal about changing EU world views and role conceptions?

Key elements

• Short discussion of the evolving use of strategic foresight by EU institutions, as well as a brief state of the art of its analysis
• Content analysis to identify different trends, drivers, spoilers, obstacles and opportunities presented in the various foresight reports with an emphasis on foreign and security policy
• Contextualisation and discussion of findings
• Lessons from past futures for today’s outlook on the future, incl. EU world views and role conceptions
• Recommendations for future EU foresight activities

How to apply for this call

We welcome submissions from academics, researchers, think tankers and journalists, with strong expertise in strategic foresight.

Please submit applications by Thursday 1 October 2026 EOB, to Dr. Katharina Emschermann (Katharina.Emschermann [at] eu.boell.org), in one single PDF document:

• Curriculum Vitae (CV) of any authors. Please use a standard format, max. 2 pages. Do not include a photo, date of birth, religion, or marital status.
• Pitch document (1 page). Outline the following:
  • Your qualifications and relevant experience
  • Your research proposal: How do you plan to approach the research questions? How do you intend to scope and structure your research? What methods do you plan on using?
• A budget proposal based on daily rates, excluding layout of print/online publication and excluding costs of proofreading

• Work samples. Submit two samples of previous academic work, either as PDFs or links.