This e-paper is an updated version of the publication “US elections and European cohe-sion” from October 2024 that contained scenarios for both a Harris and a Trump 2.0 administration. The initial scenarios were refined, tested and reviewed.
As the EU enters a new five-year cycle, its ambitious Green Deal targets and European Climate Law face growing uncertainty due to concerns over industrial competitiveness and economic growth. Additionally, backlash against the EU’s climate policies, fuelled by farmers’ protests, could hinder the promise of a just green transition. Yet, as the planet warms rapidly, climate change will continue to affect EU economic sectors, including agriculture and food. Greater climate variability and extremes will impact global food systems, posing supply chain challenges and heightening food insecurity. These trends highlight the need to invest in sustainable agri-food systems as part of climate mitigation and adaptation.
The EU's reactions to the current challenges in the areas of security and trade policy highlight that a resolute and coherent common European foreign policy depends on the political will of Member States and their willingness to overcome their differences. The aim must be for Europeans to jointly consider their international commitment across different policy areas and act accordingly in a strategic manner. But the institutional reforms of the past have not provided the necessary push forward. In this sense, the recommendations for action in this paper are to be understood primarily as a call to Member States to make better use of the existing scope for action within the EU treaties.
The choice at the US ballot box will be a stark one for climate policies. This paper explores how the EU and its member states could adjust their climate policies, depending on the outcome of the US election.
The fate of Ukraine’s battlefield will be decided at the US ballot box. This paper explores how the European Union and its Member States could adjust their Ukraine and NATO policies, depending on the outcome of the US election.
Jacob Mardell compares the US and EU strategies to ensure access to raw materials necessary for the green transition in the face of global competition and shows how these should be based on genuine and inclusive partnerships rather than just economic interests.
