US elections and European cohesion: Scenarios for green transitions and Transatlantic climate action
Full paper.
The Biden administration has been arguably the greenest in US history, but the polls show that there’s about a fifty-fifty chance that he will be followed by one of the least climate-friendly presidents. So this November, the choice at the ballot box will be a stark one for climate policies, with Kamala Harris likely to push for a green transition and climate justice, and Donald Trump expected to end climate measures and focus on energy supply and energy independence.
Given this context, this paper explores how the EU and its member states could adjust their climate policies, depending on the outcome of the US election. We plot out potential Harris and Trump administration positions on two key elements of global climate action and possible European responses along the variables of unity and decisiveness.
Check out the related e-paper US elections and European cohesion: Scenario implications for Ukraine and Transatlantic security, by Rachel Tausendfreund and Roderick Kefferpütz.
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Table of contents
Introduction 3
1. Green (Industrial) Domestic Policies 6
1.1. President Harris, engaged but spending limited by Congress 6
1.2. Trump 2.0 with a slim GOP Senate majority,
Democratic House majority 10
2. The International Climate Agenda (G7 and COP) 13
2.1. Harris with a focus on domestic climate action 13
2.2. Trump 2.0: An anti-climate, tough on China, agenda 16
3. Conclusion 20
The Authors 21