The Rule of Law in the EU

Poland takes on the EU Council Presidency in January 2025. What does this role mean, and what challenges lie ahead? Our latest article explores the key context and what to expect during this pivotal six-month period.

On 18 July 2024, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen was elected for a second mandate and presented to the European Parliament her Political Guidelines for the next European Commission. A new European Commission will kick-off its work on 1 December 2024, after its approval by the European Parliament. We take a look at von der Leyen's promises for the first 100 days (and beyond) of the new European Commission.

An umbrella does not shield against flooding. For the European Democracy Shield to do what it says, it must encompass the full spectrum of hybrid threats, not only foreign disinformation. Like any shield, it is only as strong as its bearer. If it is to be more than a fig leaf, our work to defend democracy must start at home.

Georgia’s 2024 parliamentary elections signal the country’s descent into hegemonic authoritarianism. The ruling Georgian Dream party won by engaging in election manipulation, adopting the classical illiberal-authoritarian playbook, spreading disinformation about simultaneously remaining on the EU enlargement track and instrumentalizing Russia’s threat to the country. If the government stays in power despite these violations, Georgia’s relationship with the EU will further deteriorate.

Orbán aims to make a big impact during Hungary's six-month EU Council presidency, starting with a controversial visit to Moscow. Shortly after, his party, Fidesz, joined the far-right Patriots alliance in the European Parliament—a long-time goal for Orbán, despite its likely marginal influence. Betting on Trump's re-election, Orbán still ensured a handshake with Biden at the NATO summit. Meanwhile, EU leaders are increasingly sidelining him during the presidency.

As part of an EU Democracy research project funded by the Heinrich-Böll-Stiftung European Union office, Sophie Pornschlegel interviewed European Commission Vice-President for Values and Transparency, Věra Jourová, during the summer break of the European Commission. In their conversation, Vice-President Jourová reflected on five years of efforts to safeguard democracy, human rights and the rule of law in the EU, amid increasing threats against democracy and a shifting geopolitical context, not least due to Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine. 

Already within its first few weeks, Hungary’s EU Council presidency has managed to outrage many international commentators. Still, there are indications that Viktor Orbán’s six-month gig in Brussels aims to be first and foremost a PR stunt to sell the Hungarian prime minister and his ideas to the European public. In Europe, this mission is supported by the Mathias Corvinus Collegium, Hungary’s principal “talent promotion institution”. 

On 23 June 2024, Chancellor Scholz will receive Argentinian president Javier Milei with military honours. Not only do Milei’s reform plans accept the dismantling of democracy and the rule of law, they will also deindustrialise Argentina. This does not correspond to Germany's interests.

After the European elections, the democratic and pro-European forces in the European Parliament (EP) have been weakened. They must make cooperation much more binding in order to ensure reliable majorities for an effective EU.

Today, citizens will start heading to the polls to vote for the next European Parliament. The outcome will in part determine the political correlation of forces in Europe over the next five years. If current projections hold true, we will not only witness a rightward shift within the EP but also more fragmentation. Instead of seven political groups, key officials in the parliament administration expect there to be nine. These tendencies will affect political majorities.

The Hungarian political scene has never been more turbulent in the past 14 years. Since the start of the clemency scandal in early February, Fidesz has been unable to control the political narrative for months, despite its dominant position in power. The campaign leading up to the local and the European Parliament (EP) elections has been dominated by a new challenger, Péter Magyar, and his Respect and Freedom Party (Tisza) so far, although in recent weeks Fidesz has found its footing again.

With the Hungarian EU Council Presidency quickly approaching, it is instructive to examine how the Orbán administration has positioned itself through its global diplomatic visits over the last few years.

Just under six months ago, Georgia became a formal candidate for EU membership. The Law on Transparency of Foreign Influence, adopted in mid-May 2024, however, hinders Georgian accession to the EU and has drawn massive protests by Georgian society. The bill, which has great similarities to a Russian law, requires non-governmental organisations and media outlets that receive more than 20 percent of their funding from abroad to register as bodies 'pursuing the interests of a foreign power.' In this context, Zora Siebert and Helena Borst asked three questions to Dr. Sonja Schiffers, Director of the Heinrich-Böll-Stiftung South Caucasus office in Tbilisi, on how she views the latest developments.