Westminster woke up to what the BBC called a "seismic event." In the Gorton and Denton by-election, Green candidate Hannah Spencer didn't just edge ahead. She won decisively with over 40% of the vote, reshaping assumptions about the limits of Green politics in the UK. It marked the first ever Westminster by-election victory for the Greens, adding to their seats from the 2024 general election and bringing their total to five MPs. In a fragmented political landscape where Labour and Reform were expected to dominate the contest, voters chose a different path. What does this victory tell us about shifting political coalitions? Is this a protest vote or something more durable? And can the Greens translate a by-election breakthrough into sustained national momentum? Roderick Kefferpütz asked Natalie Bennett, Green Party peer in the House of Lords, and former leader of the Green Party of England and Wales (2012-2016), for her take.
1. This was not traditionally seen as fertile ground for the Greens. What changed and what did your campaign understand about voters that the other parties missed?
The opportunity opened up to us in Gorton and Denton because of voters' deeply felt disappointment with the Labour government over rising poverty among pensioners and children, the failure to get a grip on the cost-of-living crisis, Gaza, and fair taxation. That came after the country had grown profoundly fed up with years of Conservative chaos. Our slogan is "make hope normal again", and that sense of positive, values-driven politics proved crucial.Since the 2024 general election, we have consistently said we can win seats anywhere in the country and this result proves it. Following our recent surge in membership, we had a level of resources and organisational capacity we have never had before. Previously, our highest vote share in a parliamentary by-election was 10%. To win more than 40%, in a seat that was putatively 127th on our target list, represents an extraordinary leap.
2. Is this a protest moment or are we witnessing a deeper political realignment in British politics?
When I was elected leader of the Green Party in 2012, I said the future of politics would not look like the past. Labour and the Conservatives have dominated British politics for a century, but there is no law of nature that says this has to continue. As our current Green leader, Zack Polanski, said when he was elected, we are not aiming to be disappointed in Labour, we are aiming to replace them. This result brings that possibility significantly closer. We saw in a recent Welsh by-election also that voters under the first-past-the-post voting system are prepared to unite together in a "stop Reform" vote, and now it is clear that Greens can, and should, be that vote. We have always been held back by that undemocratic system - many people saying they would vote for us if we could win; now we've shown we can.
3. Where do you see the next major Green breakthrough coming, and what will determine whether this momentum continues?
The next key date is 7 May, when there are elections for the Senedd in Wales and where we have a real opportunity not only to elect our first representative but to return a significant group of Green Members who could hold the balance of power. There are also widespread local government elections in England, including in London - traditionally a Labour stronghold - where we expect substantial gains and have a serious chance of electing our first Green mayor, with similar possibilities in several areas outside the capital. In Scotland, our sister party is contesting Holyrood elections, and the polls suggest strong prospects for building on our already significant representation there. At least one further Westminster by-election may also be on the horizon, offering the possibility of expanding our parliamentary presence. And underpinning all of this is party membership. As I write, we are approaching 200,000 members, a figure likely to grow further, potentially bringing us closer to the membership levels of Labour and Reform.
The views and opinions in this article do not necessarily reflect those of the Heinrich-Böll-Stiftung European Union | Global Dialogue.
