The Arctic is at a geopolitical crossroads. Russia's war on Ukraine has paralysed the Arctic Council, Trump's ambitions over Greenland are fracturing transatlantic trust, and the climate crisis risks being pushed off the political agenda. As the region's governance vacuum deepens, the EU faces a pivotal choice: seize the moment or be sidelined. This policy paper sets out how the EU can build a credible, legitimate role in a rapidly shifting Arctic.
Northern EU accession is becoming a political possibility that requires attention. Bundling enlargement could help build momentum. A carefully sequenced enlargement round that includes both Nordic and southeastern and eastern candidates could reinvigorate a fatigued debate. However, the EU needs to be careful to only incentivise, rather than push, EU accession.
