Future of Europe

What a show these last couple of weeks have been. The return of Donald Trump, the rupture of the German federal government, and then the ridicule of the Commissioner-designate hearings in the European Parliament. Challenges are rising, but stable majorities in Europe are eroding. It is increasingly difficult to build consensus and have a stable centre of political gravity.

On 18 July 2024, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen was elected for a second mandate and presented to the European Parliament her Political Guidelines for the next European Commission. A new European Commission will kick-off its work on 1 December 2024, after its approval by the European Parliament. We take a look at von der Leyen's promises for the first 100 days (and beyond) of the new European Commission.

This series of policy papers provides impetus for the EU reform debate to make the European Union more effective, democratic, ecological and socially just. Our conclusion: Germany can play a decisive role in a successful reform process. 

We are in the midst of a fundamental global political and economic re-ordering. Revisionist states are challenging the geopolitical order and questioning the territorial status quo in Europe and Asia. Economic competition on the world market is fierce, as evidenced by the struggles of traditional European industrial powerhouses such as Volkswagen and ThyssenKrupp. Cracks in the foundations of European prosperity are emerging. The days when Europe could outsource its security to the Americans, benefit from cheap Russian energy, and easily sell its goods to the world are ending. Europe needs to rethink its foundations. This means investing in decarbonisation, digitalisation, and defence. But this cannot be done on the cheap.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen tasked Mario Draghi, former President of the European Central Bank and former Italian Prime Minister, to write a comprehensive report on the state of the European economy. In this long-awaited report, the Italian economist provides a substantive analysis on how a changing geopolitical landscape, an energy shock, demographic change, climate change, and international competition put stress on the European economy and the European social model. We asked Sander Tordoir, Chief Economist at the Centre for European Reform, for his first reactions to the report.

How do the results affect the work of the newly elected European Parliament? What are the opportunities and risks? What are the key priorities for the Greens/EFA? What challenges can be identified with regard to the composition and agenda of the new European Commission? What impact did the election have in individual member states, particularly in Germany, France and Poland? With: Terry Reintke, lead candidate of the European Green Party and Bündnis 90/Die Grünen; Co-Chair of the Greens/EFA Group; Roderick Kefferpütz, Director, EU office, Heinrich-Böll-Stiftung Brussels; Marc Berthold, Director, Heinrich-Böll-Stiftung Paris; Joanna Maria Stolarek, Director, Heinrich-Böll-Stiftung Warsaw. Moderation:  Eva van de Rakt, Head of European Union and North America Division, Heinrich-Böll-Stiftung, Berlin.

As part of an EU Democracy research project funded by the Heinrich-Böll-Stiftung European Union office, Sophie Pornschlegel interviewed European Commission Vice-President for Values and Transparency, Věra Jourová, during the summer break of the European Commission. In their conversation, Vice-President Jourová reflected on five years of efforts to safeguard democracy, human rights and the rule of law in the EU, amid increasing threats against democracy and a shifting geopolitical context, not least due to Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine. 

Habemus presidentem: With 401 votes in favour, the European Parliament has reconfirmed Ursula von der Leyen as the president of the European Commission. This vote was not a given. Unable to rely on the support of the super grand coalition of conservatives, social democrats, and liberals alone, von der Leyen went out of her way to secure Green votes in particular.