Today, citizens will start heading to the polls to vote for the next European Parliament. The outcome will in part determine the political correlation of forces in Europe over the next five years. If current projections hold true, we will not only witness a rightward shift within the EP but also more fragmentation. Instead of seven political groups, key officials in the parliament administration expect there to be nine. These tendencies will affect political majorities.
For years, the EPP and S&D held over 50% of the vote. This past legislative term, they needed Renew in order to hold a parliamentary majority, forming a centrist “super grand coalition”. But even this majority was not watertight. In roughly 25% of cases, an alternative majority was formed, for example by S&D and Renew teaming up with the Greens/EFA and left-wing GUE/NGL.
While the majority of the super grand coalition is expected to hold, losses are projected, which would make its position less comfortable. Under these circumstances, a fourth political group will gain strategic importance. The question is: Will it be the ECR or the Greens/EFA?
With Italy’s Giorgia Meloni and Czechia’s Petr Fiala both members of the European Council, the ECR has received a lot of attention. After all, its support will be necessary for EPP candidate Ursula von der Leyen to return as Commission president and the European Council is crucial in key decisions. Projections currently see the ECR polling in third place, neck-and-neck with Renew, while the Greens are lagging behind.
But there are convincing reasons why the Greens could emerge as the more attractive coalition partner for a responsible centre-ground parliamentary majority.
First, when it comes to the nitty-gritty of actual European policymaking, the Greens are far more relevant than the ECR. Not only would they deliver a comfortable majority in the European Parliament, they would also provide one in the Council of the European Union. Take the Transport, Telecommunications and Energy EU Council configuration (TTE). Within the TTE Council, six EU Member States are represented by Ministers whose parties are part of the Greens/EFA. The ECR is entirely absent. The same holds true in other EU Council configurations.
Second, according to data crunchers such as EU Matrix, the Greens/EFA Group has the strongest voting cohesion, providing voting stability, while the ECR Group occupies second-to-last place. In a four-party-coalition spanning centre-right to centre-left, this is not unimportant.
And third, existing elements within the ECR are incompatible with a responsible centre-ground parliamentary majority. Poland’s Law and Justice Party (PiS), with its blatant disregard for the rule of law, is a case in point. If the ECR confirms its expansion with Hungary’s Fidesz and France’s Reconquête, this will only worsen the situation. Other parliamentary groups – including Renew, S&D, and the Greens/EFA – have already ruled out cooperation.
An alternative – and not entirely unrealistic – scenario would involve the super grand coalition cherry-picking the ECR, the Greens/EFA, or national delegations on specific policy files to secure voting majorities. But this would go against initial statements from S&D and Renew. It would also lead to a more unpredictable parliament, adding further instability at this time of enormous challenge to Europe.
We will be watching developments closely over the upcoming weeks to see which trends crystallise.
In the meantime, I invite you to join us for our post-election webinar on Wednesday 12 June, read the latest analyses on our European Parliament elections dossier, and familiarise yourself with our new Knowledge Community on “A fair participation in the EU’s energy transition”, a joint project that we are leading with the Green European Foundation.
Last but not least, we are sponsoring one participant to attend our European Democracy Conference taking place on 2 July in Berlin. The deadline is tomorrow (Friday 7 June), so if you are interested in applying, do check out the link.
Read more in our 5/2024 Böll EU Newsletter.
Warm regards,
Roderick Kefferpütz, Director, Heinrich-Böll-Stiftung European Union
