Scorecards

European Green Deal Risk Radar

What to watch out for in the new EU legislative cycle

Our European Green Deal Risk Radar analyses the state of play of the 13 most important legislative files of the European Green Deal and identifies the potential risks these laws face in view of being delayed, defunded, undermined, or even withdrawn. It also provides a crucial timeline, highlighting when potential risks are most likely to emerge, be it because of revision clauses, delegated acts, impact assessments or a deadline for transposition into law by EU Member States.

Entering the EU’s new policy cycle: The European Green Deal at risk? - Heinrich-Böll-Stiftung European Union

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Green Deal under attack? Mapping the risks with the European Green Deal Risk Radar

Commentary

There is a real risk that the European Green Deal will be weakened this new European policy cycle. What exact changes will be made to it? And will or won’t these changes ensure that we stay “the course on all of our goals”, as promised by re-elected European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen? Our new European Green Deal Risk Radar looks into that.

By Roderick Kefferpütz

13 European Green Deal files to watch our for 🔎

Scorecards

Risk Radar

European Commissioner-designate

European Green Deal Risk Radar - Overview table

Summary

The European Green Deal has successfully guided the EU through a pandemic and a historic energy price crisis. But will the new European Commission keep course and continue it? How will the new European Parliament, which saw a shift to the populist right, position itself? Will opponents delay crucial files or water down its level of ambition, as suggested during the election campaign? Or will inaction by EU Member States lead to a failure of implementation?

pdf

Teresa Ribera (S&D, Spain) Executive Vice-President-designate for Clean, Just and Competitive Transition

Mission letter

EP hearing: TBD

CO₂ emission performance standards for cars

Scorecard

What will happen with key European Green Deal key files in the new EU legislative cycle? We take a closer look at legislation on CO₂ emission performance standards for cars.

pdf

Regulation (EU) 2023/851 amending Regulation (EU) 2019/631 as regards strengthening the CO₂ emission performance standards for new passenger cars and new light commercial vehicles.

Mission Letter

EP hearing: TBD

Deforestation Regulation

Scorecard

What will happen with key European Green Deal key files in the new EU legislative cycle? We take a closer look at the Deforestation Regulation.

pdf

Regulation (EU) 2023/1115 on the making available on the Union market and the export from the Union of certain commodities and products associated with deforestation and forest degradation.

Mission letter

EP hearing: TBD

Effort Sharing Regulation

Scorecard

What will happen with key European Green Deal key files in the new EU legislative cycle? We take a closer look at the Effort Sharing Regulation.

pdf

Regulation (EU) 2023/857 on binding annual greenhouse gas emission reductions by Member States from 2021 to 2030 contributing to climate action to meet commitments under the Paris Agreement.

Mission Letter

EP hearing: TBD

Electricity Market Reform

Scorecard

What will happen with key European Green Deal key files in the new EU legislative cycle? We take a closer look at the Electricity Market Reform.

pdf

Regulation (EU) 2024/1747 and Directive (EU) 2024/1711 on improving the Union’s electricity market design.

Mission letter

EP hearing: TBD

Emissions Trading System (ETS)

Scorecard

What will happen with key European Green Deal key files in the new EU legislative cycle? We take a closer look at the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS).

pdf

Directive (EU) 2023/959 establishing a system for greenhouse gas emission allowance trading within the Union and Decision (EU) 2015/1814 concerning the establishment and operation of a market stability reserve; complemented by Directive (EU) 2023/958 (regarding aviation), Regulation (EU) 2023/957 (regarding shipping), Commission Delegated Regulation (EU) 2024/873 (regarding free allocation of emission allowances) and Regulation (EU) 2023/956 (establishing the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism). Further complemented by the ETS2 dealing with emissions from fuels, transport and buildings (see our dedicated scorecard).

Mission Letter

EP hearing: TBD

Emissions Trading System 2 (ETS2) covering fuels used in buildings and road transport

Scorecard

What will happen with key European Green Deal key files in the new EU legislative cycle? We take a closer look at the EU Emissions Trading System 2 (ETS2) covering fuels used in buildings and road transport.

pdf

Directive (EU) 2023/959 establishing a system for greenhouse gas emission allowance trading within the Union and Regulation (EU) 2023/955 establishing a Social Climate Fund.

Mission Letter

EP hearing: TBD

Energy Taxation Directive (ETD)

Scorecard

What will happen with key European Green Deal key files in the new EU legislative cycle? We take a closer look at the Energy Taxation Directive (ETD).

pdf

Proposal COM(2021) 563 for a Council Directive restructuring the framework for the taxation of energy products and electricity.

Mission Letter

EP hearing: TBD

European Climate Law

Scorecard

What will happen with key European Green Deal key files in the new EU legislative cycle? We take a closer look at the European Climate Law.

pdf

Regulation (EU) 2021/1119 establishing the framework for achieving climate neutrality.

Mission Letter Wopke Hoekstra

Mission letter Dan Jørgensen

EP hearings: TBD

Gas Market Reform

Scorecard

What will happen with key European Green Deal key files in the new EU legislative cycle? We take a closer look at the Gas Market Reform.

pdf

Regulation (EU) 2024/1789 and Directive (EU) 2024/1788 on the internal markets for renewable gas, natural gas and hydrogen.

Mission letter

EP hearing: TBD

Governance Regulation

Scorecard

What will happen with key European Green Deal key files in the new EU legislative cycle? We take a closer look at the Governance Regulation.

pdf

Regulation (EU) 2018/1999 on the Governance of the Energy Union and Climate Action.

Mission letter

EP hearing: TBD

Nature Restoration Regulation

Scorecard

What will happen with key European Green Deal key files in the new EU legislative cycle? We take a closer look at the Nature Restoration Regulation.

pdf

Regulation (EU) 2024/1991 on nature restoration.

Mission letter

EP hearing: TBD

Pesticides Regulation

Scorecard

What will happen with key European Green Deal key files in the new EU legislative cycle? We take a closer look at the Pesticides Regulation.

pdf

Proposal COM(2022) 305 for a Regulation on the sustainable use of plant protection products.

Mission letter

EP hearing: TBD

Renewable Energy Directive

Scorecard

What will happen with key European Green Deal key files in the new EU legislative cycle? We take a closer look at the Renewable Energy Directive.

pdf

Directive (EU) 2023/2413 on the promotion of energy from renewable sources.

Mission letter

EP hearing: TBD

Download all 13 scorecards of the European Green Deal Risk Radar in a single file

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Contact

Jörg Mühlenhoff

Head of Programme - European Energy Transition, Heinrich-Böll-Stiftung European Union

Joan Lanfranco

Head of Communications and Outreach, Heinrich-Böll-Stiftung European Union

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Acknowledgements:

We would like to thank the many experts and policy professionals, particularly from the WWF European Policy Office and Deutsche Umwelthilfe/German Environment Action, for contributing to this publication.