Scorecards

European Green Deal Risk Radar

What to watch out for in the new EU legislative cycle

Our European Green Deal Risk Radar analyses the state of play of the 13 most important legislative files of the European Green Deal and identifies the potential risks these laws face in view of being delayed, defunded, undermined, or even withdrawn. It also provides a crucial timeline, highlighting when potential risks are most likely to emerge, be it because of revision clauses, delegated acts, impact assessments or a deadline for transposition into law by EU Member States.

Overview table | CO₂ emission performance standards for cars | Deforestation Regulation | Effort Sharing Regulation | Electricity Market Reform | Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) |
ETS2 (building & road transport)
| Energy Taxation Directive | European Climate Law | Gas Market Reform | Governance Regulation | Nature Restoration Law | Pesticides Regulation | Renewable Energy Directive | Related content | Contact

13 European Green Deal files to watch our for 🔎

Scorecards

Risk Radar

European Commissioner-designate

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European Green Deal Risk Radar - Overview table

Summary
The European Green Deal has successfully guided the EU through a pandemic and a historic energy price crisis. But will the new European Commission keep course and continue it? How will the new European Parliament, which saw a shift to the populist right, position itself? Will opponents delay crucial files or water down its level of ambition, as suggested during the election campaign? Or will inaction by EU Member States lead to a failure of implementation?
Teresa Ribera (S&D, Spain) Executive Vice-President-designate for Clean, Just and Competitive Transition

Mission letter

EP hearing: TBD

Regulation (EU) 2023/851 amending Regulation (EU) 2019/631 as regards strengthening the CO2 emission performance standards for new passenger cars and new light commercial vehicles.

Wopke Hoekstra (EPP, Netherlands) Commissioner-designate for Climate, Net Zero and Clean Growth

Mission Letter

EP hearing: TBD

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Deforestation Regulation

Scorecard
What will happen with key European Green Deal key files in the new EU legislative cycle? We take a closer look at the Deforestation Regulation.

Regulation (EU) 2023/1115 on the making available on the Union market and the export from the Union of certain commodities and products associated with deforestation and forest degradation.

Jessika Roswall (EPP, Sweden) Commissioner-designate for Environment, Water Resilience and a Competitive Circular Economy

Mission letter

EP hearing: TBD

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Effort Sharing Regulation

Scorecard
What will happen with key European Green Deal key files in the new EU legislative cycle? We take a closer look at the Effort Sharing Regulation.

Regulation (EU) 2023/857 on binding annual greenhouse gas emission reductions by Member States from 2021 to 2030 contributing to climate action to meet commitments under the Paris Agreement.

Wopke Hoekstra (EPP, Netherlands) Commissioner-designate for Climate, Net Zero and Clean Growth

Mission Letter

EP hearing: TBD

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Electricity Market Reform

Scorecard
What will happen with key European Green Deal key files in the new EU legislative cycle? We take a closer look at the Electricity Market Reform.

Regulation (EU) 2024/1747 and Directive (EU) 2024/1711 on improving the Union’s electricity market design.

Dan Jørgensen (S&D, Denmark) Commissioner-designate for Energy and Housing

Mission letter

EP hearing: TBD

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Emissions Trading System (ETS)

Scorecard
What will happen with key European Green Deal key files in the new EU legislative cycle? We take a closer look at the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS).

Directive (EU) 2023/959 establishing a system for greenhouse gas emission allowance trading within the Union and Decision (EU) 2015/1814 concerning the establishment and operation of a market stability reserve; complemented by Directive (EU) 2023/958 (regarding aviation), Regulation (EU) 2023/957 (regarding shipping), Commission Delegated Regulation (EU) 2024/873 (regarding free allocation of emission allowances) and Regulation (EU) 2023/956 (establishing the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism). Further complemented by the ETS2 dealing with emissions from fuels, transport and buildings (see our dedicated scorecard).

Wopke Hoekstra (EPP, Netherlands) Commissioner-designate for Climate, Net Zero and Clean Growth

Mission Letter

EP hearing: TBD

Directive (EU) 2023/959 establishing a system for greenhouse gas emission allowance trading within the Union and Regulation (EU) 2023/955 establishing a Social Climate Fund.

Wopke Hoekstra (EPP, Netherlands) Commissioner-designate for Climate, Net Zero and Clean Growth

Mission Letter

EP hearing: TBD

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Energy Taxation Directive (ETD)

Scorecard
What will happen with key European Green Deal key files in the new EU legislative cycle? We take a closer look at the Energy Taxation Directive (ETD).

Proposal COM(2021) 563 for a Council Directive restructuring the framework for the taxation of energy products and electricity.

Wopke Hoekstra (EPP, Netherlands) Commissioner-designate for Climate, Net Zero and Clean Growth

Mission Letter

EP hearing: TBD

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European Climate Law

Scorecard
What will happen with key European Green Deal key files in the new EU legislative cycle? We take a closer look at the European Climate Law.

Regulation (EU) 2021/1119 establishing the framework for achieving climate neutrality.

Left: Wopke Hoekstra (EPP, Netherlands) Commissioner-designate for Climate, Net Zero and Clean Growth | Right: Dan Jørgensen (S&D, Denmark) Commissioner-designate for Energy and Housing

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Gas Market Reform

Scorecard
What will happen with key European Green Deal key files in the new EU legislative cycle? We take a closer look at the Gas Market Reform.

Regulation (EU) 2024/1789 and Directive (EU) 2024/1788 on the internal markets for renewable gas, natural gas and hydrogen.

Dan Jørgensen (S&D, Denmark) Commissioner-designate for Energy and Housing

Mission letter

EP hearing: TBD

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Governance Regulation

Scorecard
What will happen with key European Green Deal key files in the new EU legislative cycle? We take a closer look at the Governance Regulation.

Regulation (EU) 2018/1999 on the Governance of the Energy Union and Climate Action.

Dan Jørgensen (S&D, Denmark) Commissioner-designate for Energy and Housing

Mission letter

EP hearing: TBD

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Nature Restoration Regulation

Scorecard
What will happen with key European Green Deal key files in the new EU legislative cycle? We take a closer look at the Nature Restoration Regulation.

Regulation (EU) 2024/1991 on nature restoration.

Jessika Roswall (EPP, Sweden) Commissioner-designate for Environment, Water Resilience and a Competitive Circular Economy

Mission letter

EP hearing: TBD

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Pesticides Regulation

Scorecard
What will happen with key European Green Deal key files in the new EU legislative cycle? We take a closer look at the Pesticides Regulation.

Proposal COM(2022) 305 for a Regulation on the sustainable use of plant protection products.

Jessika Roswall (EPP, Sweden) Commissioner-designate for Environment, Water Resilience and a Competitive Circular Economy

Mission letter

EP hearing: TBD

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Renewable Energy Directive

Scorecard
What will happen with key European Green Deal key files in the new EU legislative cycle? We take a closer look at the Renewable Energy Directive.

Directive (EU) 2023/2413 on the promotion of energy from renewable sources.

Dan Jørgensen (S&D, Denmark) Commissioner-designate for Energy and Housing

Mission letter

EP hearing: TBD

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Getting back on track with new EU climate and energy targets for 2035 and 2040

Factsheet
It is very clear that if the EU wants to make a fair contribution to the effort to limit temperature rise to 1.5°C, it will need to follow the recommendation of UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres and aim for achieving net-zero GHG emissions by 2040 rather than by 2050. This means the new EU 2040 target should become a net-zero target. It makes sense for the EU to set a very ambitious 2035 target of around 95% net GHG emission reductions at the same time.
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The future role of gas in a climate-neutral Europe

Report
The EU must put an end to unabated fossil gas use by 2050 at the latest to comply with its climate neutrality objective. To stay within the Paris Agreement target of 1.5°C, the use of unabated fossil gas would have to end significantly earlier – by 2035. This report outlines the implications of this challenge for the management of the energy transition in a way that rapidly phases out Russian gas imports, protects security of supply and energy-poor consumers as well as the climate.
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Böll.Thema 1/24: Europa - A promise

böll.thema
War in Europe, the worsening climate crisis, Europe's position in the global power structure: the EU is facing historic challenges. The European elections in June 2024 will decide what happens next. Current surveys see right-wing populist parties on the rise. They stir up fears about the future and stir up sentiment against Brussels without themselves having answers to the problems of our time. But we need positive and courageous ideas for Europe.

Graphic design by:

Acknowledgements:

We would like to thank the many experts and policy professionals, particularly from the WWF European Policy Office and Deutsche Umwelthilfe/German Environment Action, for contributing to this publication.