The 2026 US midterm elections saw a blue wave, with Democrats making significant gains in both the House of Representatives and the Senate. With Republicans suffering historic losses, the results reshape the political landscape in Washington, DC and raise questions about the next two years of the Trump presidency, as well as the future of transatlantic relations. We asked three questions to Paul Kohlenberg, Director of the Heinrich-Böll-Stiftung Washington, DC office, on the midterm election key takeaways and their implications for transatlantic relations.
1. What do the Mid-terms results mean for the remaining two years of the Trump presidency?
For the next two years, Democrats in Congress are very likely to go after the Trump administration very intensely: they will focus on exposing corruption and mismanagement. Democrats can use their new majorities to shape national debates and compel presidential decisions through legislative proposals. But passing legislation will be very difficult. They do not have a veto-proof majority in Congress, so Trump will be able to block most initiatives. There could be a very long government shutdown at some point because of this.
At the state level, however, there are far greater opportunities: Many Democratic-led states now have an opportunity to serve as models for a post-Trump future, laying the groundwork for a different political era.
2. What issues featured most prominently during the electoral campaign?
Democrats were focused on the cost of living and corruption, tying the two closely together. But they were also very focused on local issues; so while there were clear overarching themes that resonated across races, it’s hard to say that there was one single message across all of their races. Instead, they found success through a diversity of approaches and a broader “big tent” strategy of coalition building: A big part of this story was the strength of individual candidates whose connections and fit for their districts and states put them in positions to succeed. The Republican message, however, was mostly unclear, individual races often devolved into various bigotries directed at their Democratic opponents. At least the most extreme forms of this bigotry seem to have been clearly rejected by voters.
3. What are the implications of the midterm results for EU-US relations? Do you foresee any meaningful changes in terms of US foreign policy more broadly?
The Democrats’ electoral success will not, in itself, directly alter US foreign policy, but the midterm results will have significant indirect implications for the direction and conduct of the Trump administration’s foreign policy. There will be hearings in Washington to expose failures (especially regarding Iran), and legislative moves to force an end to US military operations. However, actual authority over policy will remain exclusively with the presidency. As Trump’s ability to act domestically is significantly curtailed by a Congress deeply opposed to his agenda, he will likely focus on international matters where he retains considerably more latitude to act with fewer institutional constraints. The concrete outcomes of this seem entirely uncertain and unpredictable. To deal with this, the EU should cultivate a good relationship with the new Congress to at least avoid being unpleasant surprises by new crises. Generally, a further turning away from Europe is certainly in the cards, and the same can be said regarding an intensification of the war with Iran.
