From Budapest to Baden-Württemberg: European Greens With Defining Elections in 2026

The European Green Party (EGP) is a recognised European-level political party that brings together environmentalist and progressive forces from across the continent. Based on its analysis of 169 elections, Europe Elects highlights important contests for EGP members in 2026.

Historic national parliamentary polls in Denmark and Latvia; Orbán on the Defence

The most consequential election in Europe of 2026 is likely the one for the national parliament in Hungary, which is expected to be held in April. The vote is pivotal because the majority in the Hungarian parliament determines the Prime Minister, who then represents Hungary in the powerful European Council, which has to make crucial decisions unanimously. However, Hungary’s representative in the institution stands on fragile electoral ground: polls suggest that, amid domestic pressure stemming from corruption allegations and a weak economic record, incumbent Viktor Orbán may lose his parliamentary majority to Péter Magyar and his centre-right Tisza Party.

In the European Council, Orbán is currently the sole representative of the right-wing “Patriots” bloc (a transnational party alliance around Marine Le Pen and Matteo Salvini), and he has leveraged this position to coerce the other 26 member states to a more radical right agenda: For instance, to release billions of euros in frozen EU funds withheld from Hungary over concerns about the rule of law, he impeded financial support for Ukraine against Russian aggression or slowed the start of Ukraine's EU accession process.

European Green Party member “Párbeszéd – A Zöldek Pártja” has not been able to profit from Fidesz’s downward trajectory and is set to play a minor role in the election. As of December 2025, it is polling at less than two percent of the valid votes. In 2022, the party ran as part of the centrist Egységben Magyarországért (“United For Hungary”) multiparty alliance and won about 3% of the parliamentary seats – more than ever before since the party’s creation in 2013.

National parliament elections in Denmark and Latvia promise to deliver stronger results for EGP members: In Denmark, Socialistisk Folkeparti is polling at about 14% (+6 from the previous election), which would be its second-best result (after 14.6% in 1987) in a national parliament election. In Latvia, EGP member Progresīvie, which has only contested two elections to date, has been polling at around 11% (+5), a markedly stronger result than in either of its previous outings. Party systems in Denmark and Latvia are highly fragmented, with leading parties polling below 25%, making government formation difficult to predict. Consequently, it remains uncertain whether Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen and Latvian Prime Minister Evika Siliņa will be able to retain their positions as prime ministers—and, ex officio, as members of the European Council.

In Sweden, EGP member “Miljöpartiet de gröna” is polling at around 6% (+1). If repeated in the national parliament election scheduled for 13 September, it would be an unexceptional result in historic comparison: the party has stagnated in these elections between 4 and 8 per cent of the valid vote for the past 30 years, though it performed much stronger in European elections (with up to 17%). However, buttressed by the gains of the Social Democrats, Miljöpartiet has a chance to return to the government benches after the election, as the right-of-centre government under Prime Minister and European Council member Ulf Kristersson is trailing the left-of-centre opposition by about six to ten points in the polls. The Swedish Greens will also contest in nationwide regional and local elections held in parallel to the national parliament election. In 2022, they received a disappointing 3.2% of the regional vote and 3.8% of the local vote, well below their 2014 high of more than 7 percent. 

Czechia is scheduled to hold upper house (“Senat”) elections over four days in two rounds (9./10. October and 16./17. October). Zelení - Strana zelených re-entered the lower house (the “Poslanecká sněmovna”) in 2025, after a 15-year absence from the chamber.

Slovenian EGP member VESNA – zelena stranka had a transient period of remarkable success in 2024, when the party won 11% in a brief surge. However, its sole Member in the European Parliament, Vladimir Prebilič, has since left the party. Recent polling put VESNA’s joint list with the left-wing Levica party slightly above the four percent threshold, giving reason to believe that VESNA representatives could enter the national parliament for the first time since the party was founded in 2022. Slovenia will also hold two-round local elections later in the year. The country is currently represented in the European Council by liberal Prime Minister Robert Golob.

The national parliamentary elections in Cyprus, scheduled for 24 May, are separate from the European Council, where the country is represented by its president. EGP member “Cyprus Greens - Citizens Cooperation” is polling at 3% (−1), which will likely allow the party to re-enter parliament again.

National parliamentary elections are also scheduled to take place in Armenia (7 June) and Bosnia and Herzegovina, but the EGP has no presence in these countries. Elections in the Russian Federation (national parliament, regional parliaments, gubernatorial) on 20 September will likely be neither free nor fair. Zelenaya Rossia remains listed as a member of the European Greens.

Three dependent territories in Europe (all without EGP presence) are scheduled to elect new parliaments: Jersey (7 June), the Isle of Man (24 September), and the Faroe Islands. The Isle of Man Green Party exists but is not listed as an EGP member on the organisation's website.

The Green Crown Jewel: Özdemir On the Defensive in Baden-Württemberg

EGP members will also contest a range of crucial regional parliament elections.

Baden-Württemberg, with its 11 million inhabitants, has long been a stronghold of the Greens. It was here that they won a German regional prime ministership for the first time in 2011. However, incumbent Winfried Kretschmann is retiring, and the party has been trailing in the polls. The latest Infratest dimap poll for the election scheduled for 8 March 2026 shows them at 20%, one point behind the far-right AfD and nine points behind the centre-right CDU. However, German regional elections in recent years have shown that the popularity of the lead candidate can improve a party’s fortunes once the regional campaign sidelines federal politics – and the aforementioned poll showed a remarkable 24-point lead for Green candidate Cem Özdemir over the other candidates. Other German regional elections (“Landtagswahlen”) in 2026 involve Rhineland-Palatinate (where the Greens are a junior government party and 22 March has already been set as the voting date), Saxony-Anhalt, Berlin (which holds local elections on the same day), and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern.

Projections in the United Kingdom suggest that the Welsh Green Party, an autonomous section of the Green Party of England and Wales, could be elected to the regional parliament (“Senedd”) for the first time. The election on 7 May is set to take place under a new electoral code whose stronger proportional character tends to benefit smaller parties, such as the Greens. Recent surveys indicate it may receive a record popular vote of 6 and 9%. Polling of the Scottish Greens exceeds past elections, with the most recent Ipsos poll showing 17% support in the list vote, an extraordinary performance in historical comparison. Scottish Parliament elections are scheduled for the same day as the Welsh vote.

During the Andalusia regional parliament election, EGP member Verdes Equo (VE) is set to run with the Por Andalucía multiparty alliance, which, according to the latest SocioMétrica poll, has a chance to enter the regional parliament. In Castile and León, VE supports the IUCyL–Sumar–VQ alliance.

The Swiss Greens have been experiencing a slow decline over the past few years, following a “green wave” of electoral success. In this context, they face several regional elections across the country in 2026: in Nidwald (government and parliament: 8 March), Berne (government and parliament: 29 March), Bernese Jura (parliament: 29 March), Glarus (government: 8 March; parliament: 14 June), The Grisons (government and parliament: 14 June), Zug (government and parliament: 4 October), and Fribourg (government and parliament: 8 November). In Vaud, the Greens are expected to back the Social Democrats, who will try to retain their seat in a regional government by-election.

The party lacks regional branches in Appenzell Inner-Rhodes (government election: 26 April) and Obwald (government and parliament elections: 8 March).

Unlike elsewhere, multimember regional executives in Switzerland are directly elected, though the Greens may not compete for all of them depending on the context.

The Autonomous Territorial Unit of Gagauzia regional parliamentary election is set to be held on 22 March, but it remains to be confirmed whether the EGP member Partidul Verde Ecologist participates in these. 

The European Greens lack representation in Slovakia, where nationwide local and regional elections are scheduled for 2026.

Amsterdam, Lyon, Paris: Greens as main contestants for City Hall

Because presidential elections in most states require a majority (either in parliament or the electorate), the European Greens are often uncompetitive. The 2026 presidential elections or head of state elections in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Estonia, Kosovo, Portugal (18 January, with a prospective second round on 8 February), San Marino, and Switzerland will likely not deliver any surprise victories for the European Greens.

More interesting, from a Green perspective, are often-overlooked municipal races in Europe’s capitals, where the environmentalist-progressive electorate is strong enough to deliver majorities or, at least, parliamentary pluralities.

France is set to hold nationwide local elections on 15 March (first round) and 22 March (prospective second round). The country-wide electoral success of Les Écologistes in 2019-2020 has waned. In Paris, however, recent polls suggest that the French Greens could win between 13% and 20%, a strong result at the expense of the weakening centre-left Socialist Party, which will likely form a left-of-centre alliance with the Greens. In Lyon, Les Écologistes mayor Grégory Doucet is facing Jean-Michel Aulas, former president of Olympique Lyon, who is supported by centrist and centre-right forces. Polls suggest that Doucet is behind, but two of six polls had been paid for by groups close to Aulas.

The Dutch GroenLinks is set to merge with the Labour Party into a new party in mid-2026. Whether this novel party will become a member of the European Greens or join forces with the current affiliate of the Labour Party, the centre-left Party of European Socialists, remains unclear. The Netherlands, including the capital Amsterdam, will hold local elections on 18 March.

The European Greens lack representation in Iceland, where nationwide local elections are scheduled for 16 May 2026.

The entire electoral calendar for 2026 is available on Europe Elect’s website: https://europeelects.eu/calendar/ 

The following members of the Europe Elects network acted as key informants: Aleš Rus (Slovenia), Gert Armand Valgerist (Estonia), Imre Telegdi (Hungary), Julien Mathias (Portugal), Kostadin Kostov (Bulgaria), Matías Pino Cabeza (Spain), Nasha Gagnebin (Switzerland), Paul Wieczorek (Germany), Rithwik Narendra (Iceland), Roman Broszkowski (Bosnia and Herzegovina), Simone Sessolo (Switzerland), Stefan Neagu (Moldova), and Matthias Troude (France).

The views and opinions in this article do not necessarily reflect those of the Heinrich-Böll-Stiftung European Union | Global Dialogue.