After weeks of confusion and controversy around Sébastien Lecornu’s appointment as Prime Minister, President Macron faces mounting pressure at home and growing doubts abroad. Joan Lanfranco asked Marc Berthold, Director of the Heinrich-Böll-Stiftung Paris office, what this means for Macron, France’s role in the EU, and the wider impact on Europe.
1.France’s system is facing three political blocs instead of a clear majority. What does this mean and how did we get here?
The political system of the French Fifth Republic is based on the assumption of two main political party blocs competing in a majority voting system. Traditionally, the President either commands a majority in the National Assembly or faces a period of so-called “co-habitation” – when the opposition bloc holds an absolute majority. In such cases, the President retains control on foreign and defence policy, while domestic affairs fall largely under the authority of the Prime Minister and the parliamentary majority.
When Emmanuel Macron launched his first presidential campaign in 2017, he sought to transcend the traditional left-right divide with his centrist movement, Renaissance. However, instead of reinforcing the centre, his success accelerated the fragmentation of French politics. On the right, the far right Rassemblement National under Marine Le Pen increased its share and, on the left, La France Insoumise, a new leftist nationalist party, emerged under Jean-Luc Mélenchon. With Macron’s re-election in 2022 – and especially after the snap parliamentary elections in June 2024 – Macron’s centrist alliance lost its majority. The National Assembly is now effectively split into three roughly equal parts.
2.With the government struggling to pass laws and another early election possible, what does this reveal about Macron and the system itself?
In France’s traditional two-bloc system, negotiations and compromises among parties were rare and not the norm. Compromises have been considered a weakness if not treason in the French political culture. Since the snap elections of 2024, none of the three blocs (the centre-left “New Popular Front”, the Macron’s centrist Ensemble (Together) and the extreme right Rassemblement National) has a clear majority or little willingness to cooperate.
During Macron’s second Presidential term, successive Prime Ministers (Elisabeth Borne, Gabriel Attal and Michel Barnier) were all brought down by parliamentary censure. The fourth Prime Minister in less than one year, Francois Bayrou, also lost the parliament’s confidence. The current Prime Minister, Sébastian Lecornu, resigned only days after his appointment, and then was reappointed within the same week, simply to present a national budget.
For the second time in two years, France is struggling to pass a budget. National debt has surpassed EU limits, pension reform is needed but contested and investments are crucial to revive France’s economy. Macron’s repeated attempts to form governments with the centre-right Republicans have failed, while he continues to reject governing with the centre-left Socialist party or the Greens, despite their calls for cooperation. Thus, the deadlock continues, turning a political crisis into a systemic crisis.
3.Could this crisis in France create wider problems for Europe, like economic uncertainty or more political polarisation in other countries?
President Macron remains an outspoken leader on the European level and seeks to strengthen European sovereignty and resilience in the shifting global order. The domestic crisis in France is more than a distraction. The ongoing political and fiscal crisis risks amplifying economic instability across the European Union. A far-right victory in France’s 2027 presidential election would further erode the EU’s foundations.
For some, the situation in France offers a glimpse into Germany’s potential future. The far-right AfD keeps rising in the election polls, while the CDU and CSU are shifting further to the right, and support for the Social Democrats and the Greens is slowly declining. While The Left party is re-emerging, its openness to join a federal government remains uncertain. At this difficult moment for the EU, if France remains paralysed, Germany carries particular responsibility. If Germany undermines EU decisions already agreed upon, such as the 2040 climate targets, or the phase-out of combustion engine by 2035, it will only deepen uncertainty about the EU’s direction and unity.
