Europe must step up. While EU leaders have expressed solidarity in the wake of the Trump-Vance-Zelensky Oval Office meeting, tweets and statements do not help on the battlefield. Ukraine needs weapons and financial support. The challenge Europe faces is not a lack of capability, but a weakness of will. Europe possesses immense resources but struggles to mobilise them effectively.
Dear friends,
There are years when nothing happens, and then there are weeks when everything happens. This is what the current moment feels like. Three recent events stand out:
- 14 February: At the Munich Security Conference, Vice President J.D. Vance declares that the real threat is not Russia, China, or autocratic regimes, but essentially the European Union itself, with its rules and regulations.
- 28 February: In the Oval Office, President Trump and J.D. Vance ambush President Zelensky, accusing him of ingratitude and resistance to peace efforts.
- 3 March: Trump announces a pause on all US military aid to Ukraine.
A common thread runs through these events: raw power. The Trump administration views politics akin to Thucydides’ Melian Dialogue: “The strong do what they can; the weak suffer what they must.”
This explains Trump’s admiration for Putin, Xi Jinping, and other autocratic strongmen, while dismissing democracy, multilateral institutions, and Europe. He does not perceive Europe as strong—and so, in his view, it must submit.
On the contrary – Europe must step up. While EU leaders have expressed solidarity in the wake of the Oval Office meeting, tweets and statements do not help on the battlefield. Ukraine needs weapons and financial support. The challenge Europe faces is not a lack of capability, but a weakness of will. Europe possesses immense resources but struggles to mobilise them effectively.
Circumstances are pushing a shift in mindset, and progress is possible. Today, ahead of the crucial 6 March special European Council summit, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen presented the "ReArm Europe" initiative with a new common 150 billion euro defence fund. This initiative, however, can only be a first step, as it's largely limited to expanding national fiscal space; it is welcome, but not yet the defence bazooka Ukraine and Europe need. In this context, I invite you to read our new e-paper by Sophia Besch from the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, which analyses the EU’s defence industrial policy and outlines a path forward.
European coordination has also intensified, the UK and France are ready to lead a European mission in Ukraine, and Germany’s recent elections have brought political clarity to Berlin. As discussed in our recent webinar on Germany’s election, Friedrich Merz may adopt a more European-oriented stance than Olaf Scholz. Already, the future governing coalition is considering two extraordinary funds—one for defence and one for infrastructure.
We will continue to analyse and discuss these critical developments. On 6 March, we are hosting an event (fully booked) on Russia’s trajectory and how the EU should deal with Russia in future, featuring Jens Siegert, former director of our Moscow office, and MEP Ville Niinistö, Chair of the European Parliament’s Russia delegation. Then, on 19 March, we will have a webinar to explore the latest EU security and defence developments.
The coming days and weeks will be pivotal. The time for European action is now.
Read more in our Böll EU 2/2025 Newsletter!
Warm regards,
Roderick Kefferpütz, Director, Heinrich-Böll-Stiftung European Union
