Peace, defence and security

The 24th Foreign Policy Conference of the Heinrich Böll Foundation focusses on current debates around the future of the EU Common Foreign and Security Policy with special emphasis on the outlook for a post-national European Security Order, including an EU Army and an independent EU nuclear deterrent. Another focus of the Expert conference is the search for a new balance in transatlantic burden sharing in three crisis regions: the Western Balkans, the Indo-Pacific and Ukraine. How much US engagement is still needed, and which role can Europe play for the security of these regions?

The United Kingdom has developed its contribution to European security in the context of its withdrawal from the EU. However, a more formal relationship between the two in the areas of foreign, security and defence policy remains to be desired.

With US support waning, European nations could be much more in a bind to step up and provide streamlined military aid for Ukraine in 2024. While the war in Ukraine lead to replenished national defense budgets, different interests and agendas so far have prevented substantial European collaboration.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine did change how Germany thinks about its own security and its relationship with Russia, says Christina Keßler. But the country is still wary of playing a major role in European defence. With Russia unlikely to attack NATO territory soon, Britain should not assume that Germany will take on a leadership role on European security.

Brexit and Britain’s Indo-Pacific tilt may have convinced Germany that the UK is no longer interested in defence co-operation, writes James Rogers. That would be a mistake. The two can build on each other’s strengths in NATO and in the defence of Ukraine.

People who are keen to see an improvement in UK-EU relations should not overestimate the power of the European Political Community, says Luigi Scazzieri. It is not a route to rejoining the EU. Nonetheless, on some foreign policy issues and especially those affecting the EU’s borders, it could prove very useful.