Christian Schmidt's resignation as High Representative in Bosnia and Herzegovina was not a routine handover. It followed intense US pressure, linked to a controversy over the Southern Interconnection pipeline, where Bosnian legislation handed a major energy project to a Trump-linked company over EU objections. With Republika Srpska's Milorad Dodik presenting the departure as his personal triumph, and European actors conspicuously silent, Bosnia's fragile post-war order is under serious strain. We asked Paola Petrić, Director of the Heinrich-Böll-Stiftung's Sarajevo office, what this moment means for Bosnia's institutions, for Washington's role in the Western Balkans, and for the EU's credibility as a guarantor of the Dayton framework.
1. High Representative Christian Schmidt's term ends, but the crises – Dodik's secessionism, stalled reforms, blocked institutions – remain fully intact. What does his departure actually change for Bosnia's political reality, and does the Office of the High Representative (OHR) still serve the purpose to oversee and uphold the Dayton agreement?
Two days before the OHR's semi-annual report to the UN Security Council, High Representative Christian Schmidt announced his resignation as the international community's High Representative in Bosnia and Herzegovina, but stated that he would remain in the position until a successor is appointed. His withdrawal has further shaken the political reality in the country, following an already turbulent episode involving the adoption of legislation related to the South Interconnection in the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, as well as the intergovernmental agreement between Bosnia and Herzegovina and Croatia, both of which were adopted under US pressure.
The High Representative's withdrawal does not align with the initial plan for successfully implementing the “5+2” program and closing the OHR. Bosnia and Herzegovina has not yet implemented key reforms, for which the OHR's work remains essential. We can only hope that the successor will use the Bonn Powers to serve Annex 10, ensuring the country's sovereignty and territorial integrity, protecting the institutions built after Dayton, and helping the country make the necessary reforms to progress toward EU membership. In the short term, little will change on the ground. Dodik's secessionist agenda will continue unchecked, and institutional blockades will remain in place. The real risk is a prolonged leadership vacuum that emboldens those who want to disrupt the peace.
2. If Washington traded the position of the High Representative for a pipeline deal, what does that mean for the credibility of the international peace order in Bosnia and about whether the US is still a credible guarantor of peace in the Balkans?
Washington's intentions clearly indicate economic and energy transactionalism and an opportunity for profit-making, which further weakens the state and fuels the ethno-territorial division of Bosnia and Herzegovina. Therefore, it is difficult to speak of a principled American policy. Such a position by the US destabilises the entire region, not just Bosnia and Herzegovina.
It is therefore important that the appointment of Schmidt's successor not succumb to pressure from the Trump administration and its transactional interests, which could have long-term consequences. If the High Representative's position becomes a bargaining chip in energy deals, it sets a dangerous precedent that the entire framework of postwar peace agreements is negotiable. This message will resonate not only in Sarajevo but also in Pristina, Belgrade, and beyond.
3. Europe has been conspicuously quiet. With the US disengaging and the Office of the High Representative leaderless, what must the EU do now, and is there any realistic prospect it will?
The EU has criticised the South Interconnection project on several occasions in letters from Luigi Soreca, Head of the EU Delegation in Bosnia and Herzegovina. These letters indicate EU activity, but not a serious decision to confront US policy. Nevertheless, Europe is strongest and most present partner collectively in Bosnia and Herzegovina and the Western Balkans. It would be wise to leverage this strength now.
Schmidt's resignation did not come as a complete surprise to the EU. I sincerely hope that the Europeans have considered possible scenarios, even one in which the US withdraws funding for the Office of the High Representative.
The EU must swiftly react strategically to this moment and renew its focus on Bosnia and Herzegovina and the entire Balkans to protect its values and interests from other geopolitical actors, starting with the US. Realistically, the EU's track record of decisive action in the Balkans is not very encouraging, but the current power vacuum may finally generate the political urgency that years of managed instability failed to produce.