It has forced Keir Starmer to resign. Now the Labour Party is pinning all its hopes on Andy Burnham, a charismatic mayor from Manchester, writes Ros Taylor. It knows the alternative is a far right government.
People are beginning to use the word ‘ungovernable’ about Britain. Since David Cameron resigned after the Brexit referendum a decade ago, five prime ministers have quit or lost an election. Keir Starmer was in the job just under two years before his party made it clear it wanted him out.
Starmer resigned not because of single error of judgement, but a slow accumulation of disillusionment. He had few loyal supporters and alienated some on the left with a harsher migration policy than the Conservatives had pursued. He struggled to articulate a coherent vision for his government, preferring to talk about worthy but vague concepts like ‘dignity’ and ‘fairness’. Many of the public found him weak and despicable. Indeed, the contempt some of them expressed for Starmer was beyond anything previously seen in UK politics. This mild-mannered, buttoned-up ex-lawyer became a lightning rod for Britons’ fury over the cost of living, the failures of Brexit, growing petty crime and, as ever, the small boats carrying migrants landing on beaches near Dover.
Still, the Labour government has achieved many of its aims. What it has failed to do is to convince voters. True, economic growth is minimal. But immigration has fallen drastically, though the small boats continue to arrive. Inflation is fairly low, even if some utility bills have risen. Electrification of the National Grid and more renewable energy generation are on track. NHS waiting times have fallen a little, the minimum wage has risen, and Labour (just about) kept its promise not to raise taxes on working people. Despite the terrifying videos on TikTok portraying London as a knife-ridden hellhole, violent crime continues to fall. Yet the far-right Reform party is still leading in the polls, with the support of over a quarter of voters. Even more astonishingly, its leader Nigel Farage was the driving force behind Brexit, which even most of its backers agree has failed to improve Britons’ lives.
Enter Andy Burnham
The Labour Party concluded that Starmer was incapable of turning around public opinion. But neither could any of its existing MPs. None were charismatic, capable or left-wing enough to command the support of enough of the party. One MP therefore stood down to force a by-election, allowing the mayor of Manchester, Andy Burnham, to run in the constituency of Makerfield. He won convincingly. In a sign of the deep divisions in Britain, Reform and Restore, a party even further to the right, came second and third.
Burnham has his detractors. He has been out of Westminster politics for a long time (although some say that is a good thing) and has never held a senior cabinet job. He can be uncomfortable with tough decisions. However, he has been a very popular mayor, achieving what he could given the limited powers available to him, and he represents a Labour tradition that Starmer does not: earthy, northern, plain-speaking, empathetic. (He read English at Cambridge University but has long since shed any southern habits.) His fans, half-jokingly, call him King of the North.
In recent months he has fleshed out the beginnings of a political philosophy, dubbed Manchesterism. This is not to be confused with the 19th century free-market doctrine of the same name, though Burnham is very keen on manufacturing industry. It has a few distinguishing features.
Firstly, it favours devolving power to regions. Burnham is probably not ready to create German-style Länder, but his supporters point to Australia’s dynamic cities as a model. Most policy thinkers agree that too much political power is concentrated in London. But once they get into power, they are disinclined to devolve it. As a first step, Burnham wants to move some of Number 10 Downing Street’s functions to Manchester.
Secondly, Manchesterism seeks to bring more utilities back into public control, though not necessarily ownership. Burnham did this with buses in Manchester. His first target is likely to be the water companies, loathed for their high bills and sewage discharges.
Thirdly, it is pro-industrial, ‘business-friendly’, subsidising firms to build new offices and factories in deprived areas and willing to borrow more to stimulate growth.
Lastly, Burnham has supported big constitutional changes, including abolishing the House of Lords in its current form and allowing MPs a free vote on government bills rather than taking orders from party whips on how to vote.
Unanswered questions
Because Burnham had relatively little scope to develop new policy in Manchester, this agenda leaves a lot of questions unanswered. We know he will not chase after Trump, but what will his foreign and defence policy be? He says Brexit was a mistake, but rejoining the EU is clearly not his priority. He may even decide to halt some of the ‘reset’ that is intended to improve trade and restart youth mobility with the EU. Starmer has cultivated relationships with European allies. He got little thanks for it. Will Burnham value them as much? The UK’s defence secretary recently resigned over what he saw as inadequate defence funding. Will that be a priority? Rumours suggest more money will be available, but we will now have to wait even longer for the Defence Investment Plan. The Foreign Office is about to lose about a fifth of its UK-based staff and may go on strike.
Ed Miliband, the successful net zero secretary, is an ally of Burnham and green campaigners hope he will influence the new PM to press on with renewables and electrification. Miatta Fahnbulleh, who promoted them in her previous career at a left-wing think tank, is also expected to get a job in the Burnham administration. But he is already coming under pressure from unions to licence more North Sea oil and gas fields. In parts of Scotland and the north-east, there is anger over the pace of the transition away from fossil fuels.
The Labour Party is intensely factional. MPs can be open about their disdain and even loathing of colleagues who take different policy and ideological positions. But they are beginning to realise that only by uniting round Burnham do they have a chance of winning the next election. Given that the alternative is a far-right government led by Nigel Farage, the stakes are extremely high. Burnham will govern in an age of growing inter-generational and regional divisions, where the traditional media ecosystem is breaking down and Britons watch an infinite scroll of hate-filled influencers on social media denigrate their country and its government. It will take a remarkable politician to overcome that.
The views and opinions in this article do not necessarily reflect those of the Heinrich-Böll-Stiftung European Union | Global Dialogue.