Carbon emissions from transport will still account for 44% of Europe’s total in 2030. The sector's decarbonisation comes with broad challenges, including industrial transformation to scale new technologies, secure local green jobs, and ramp up new supply chains. Transport & Environment's Julia Poliscanova looks at the building blocks of a successful mobility transition for the next European Commission.
It’s that time of the political cycle again: following the EU elections in June, the new set of European politicians is taking charge, and the designated European Commission has been revealed. The issue of climate is less prominent in political headlines than in 2019. However, as climate change–induced natural disasters intensify, the urgency to make progress and implement the many laws agreed upon in the previous term is still there.
Transport will remain one of the largest climate culprits. Even with current policies, carbon emissions from cars, trucks, ships and planes will still account for 44% of Europe’s total in 2030. Decarbonising transport also comes with many broader challenges, including industrial transformation to scale new technologies and secure local green jobs, ramping up new supply chains, and balancing speed with affordability.
How can the new European Commission succeed in the green mobility transition?
The European Commission, jointly with the Parliament and Member State governments, will have to deliver on three foundational pillars in the next five years. As is the case in a building, these pillars are the foundations, supporting walls and insulation.
No backtracking on the EU Green Deal as the foundation
First, the clean transport measures agreed under the European Green Deal are the foundation of the mobility transition. With cars and vans accounting for more than half of transport’s carbon emissions, keeping the regulation to require these to go zero emission by 2035 is critical. It creates the long-term planning certainty for timely investment into electric vehicle production, battery manufacturing and charging infrastructure. The latest political questioning of the target has already brought uncertainty and delays to some battery investments. Given the global race to secure this supply chain, Europe cannot afford such dithering.
Alongside the 2035 decision for light-duty vehicles, heavy-duty vehicles are required to go almost zero emission by 2040, which is another foundational piece of Europe’s green mobility policy. Similarly important are the mandates to supply green fuels for aviation and shipping sectors, the decarbonisation of which is lagging behind. These two sectors can serve as excellent lead markets for green hydrogen and its derived fuels, helping to scale the clean fuels on time.
The European Commission should not weaken these critical pieces of regulation, which serve as the foundation for the mobility transition to go ahead. The focus should instead turn to their effective implementation.
Smart industrial and trade strategy as the supporting walls of the transition
This leads to the second pillar of the mobility transition: deploying strong industrial strategy to secure local green manufacturing in Europe. These are the supporting walls to make sure the building does not fall apart, under the pressure of foreign imports, for example. Building these supporting walls will be the litmus test for the European Commission.
The potential to build green technologies and their associated supply chains in Europe exists. Enough investment into battery cell manufacturing has been announced to make Europe self-sufficient. Manufacturing green hydrogen fuels locally is also being planned. But effective industrial strategy and consistent planning across Commission departments and governments will be necessary to make all these materialise.
One of the main tasks for the next Commission will be to make Europe attractive for green manufacturing. This will require quick and focused implementation of both the EU Net-Zero Industry Act, notably the 40% local manufacturing target, and the EU Critical Raw Materials Act, notably selecting and launching strategic projects quickly. But on their own these are not enough.
None of the current measures comes with sufficient public financing to support companies manufacturing locally and facing higher energy or labour costs. The European Green Deal should thus be coupled with a European investment agenda. The EU Innovation Fund can serve as its backbone and be turned into a comprehensive Green Industry Fund if more of the revenue from the sales of the emissions allowances is frontloaded and more competitive auctions, similar to the Hydrogen Bank, for sectors such as wind and batteries are held.
On top of investment, measures are needed to make local manufacturing more attractive than, often cheaper, foreign imports. So Europe also needs a smarter trade policy, including trade defence mechanisms, to support local manufacturing by European and global companies. The current temporary tariffs on electric vehicles imported from China should be made permanent. Coupled with targeted industrial policy, investment and joint-up planning across the Commission, the tariffs will create a strong business case to manufacture EVs locally.
The final weak link in the transition are Europe’s grids. Beyond executing the Commission’s own Grids Action Plan, the new executive should define charging networks as ‘strategic infrastructure’ and standardise approvals across the EU. This will help shorten and simplify connection times ensuring everything from a wind park to a local charging station is connected efficiently.
Insulating the transition with affordable solutions
Finally, to withstand weather shocks, any building requires insulation. In the case of the EU’s mobility transition, this means affordability and accessibility for consumers across all countries.
Even as electric car sales are reaching millions of units, the biggest problem today is the lack of more affordable mass-market electric car (EV) models. Close to half of electric models on offer today are large, premium cars. More affordable models, such as the Citroen e3 and the Skoda Epiq, are planned from late 2024 onwards. This coincides with the next set of EU car emission targets from 2025, showing the importance of the rules for affordability.
Nevertheless, a lot more can be done to support middle- and lower-income groups accessing clean mobility solutions. One way is to roll out the French-style low-cost EV leasing programme across Europe, either using the EU Social Climate Fund or setting up a new Affordable EV Fund. This would allow drivers to lease compact electric vehicles for around EUR 100 a month, prioritising those living near urban low-emission zones and in low-income neighbourhoods. Coupled with more investment into public transport, charging and passenger rail services, this can improve access to clean mobility across the continent.
The next few years will be decisive and will make or break the green mobility transition in Europe. Effectively implementing, rather than backtracking on, the transport laws under the EU Green Deal, coupled with a focus on industrial policy to boost local manufacturing and affordable clean mobility solutions, will help the new European Commission make a success of it.
The views and opinions in this article do not necessarily reflect those of the Heinrich-Böll-Stiftung European Union.
