The fabric of the European security order is fraying. Putin’s imperialist revisionism threatens Europe. Trump is undermining US security guarantees for Europe. And Orbán’s vetoes are impeding European action. This is nothing new; the writing has been on the wall for a long time. What has changed is the urgency. Putin’s revisionism, Trump’s erraticism, and Orbán’s obstructionism are coming to a head. It’s crunch time.
“But where danger is, grows the saving power also.” These past weeks have demonstrated that the EU is capable of moving forward. It has increased its ammunition production capacity. It has overcome Orbán’s veto to agree on a 50-billion-euro financial assistance package for Kyiv. And it has taken first steps to use windfall profits from frozen Russian assets. Individual member states have also taken on leadership roles, such as Estonia, which has promised to donate military aid to Ukraine equal to 0.25 per cent of its GDP. But single steps, albeit welcome, do not a strategy make. What is needed is a clear European vision of deterrence. This is where the debate is heading.
That’s why the focus of our 2024 Foreign Policy Conference, held in early February, was “Defending Europe in Uncertain Times”. Because this is the key question: how do we defend Europe? Ideas range from a European nuclear shield, an EU army, and an exemption from deficit rules for defence spending to a primary focus on disarmament. The salience of this debate will increase as the European and US elections draw nearer.
At the Heinrich-Böll-Stiftung European Union, our contribution to this debate includes a policy brief and online discussion on how the EU should approach a potential Trump 2.0 scenario, a feature on the role of the UK in a new European security architecture, and an article exploring how the EU should work with Taiwan following its election.
Further details on these and other Böll EU publications and events – including our publication on greening the European Central Bank and a launch event for a policy study on women CSO leaders for systemic change – can be found in our revamped newsletter. We hope you enjoy reading it.
Warm regards,
Roderick Kefferpütz, Director, Heinrich-Böll-Stiftung European Union
