After a rocky 2024, electoral prospects look bleak for members of the European Green Party. However, with at least seven national parliamentary and 10 head-of-state elections, as well as dozens of local and regional elections in 16 countries, there is plenty of opportunity for a Green surprise. This article reviews the 2025 electoral prospects for European Green Party members in Europe.
The electoral year kicks off with elections in the heart of Europe: on 23 February, snap German national parliamentary (lower house) elections will be held. EGP member Bündnis 90 / Die Grünen was a junior member of a three-party 'traffic light' coalition with the SPD (social democrats) and FDP (liberals). The coalition collapsed in 2024, as infighting between the SPD and FDP led to Chancellor (and European Council member) Olaf Scholz sacking the FDP's finance minister, Christian Lindner, and the FDP withdrawing from government. The coalition was unpopular; on 1 November, days before its collapse, only 14% of Germans said they approved of the government. Bündnis 90 / Die Grünen is currently polling at 4th place, with 13% of the vote, slightly below the 14.7% it received in the 2021 federal election. However, this is significantly below Bündnis 90 / Die Grünen's polling peak of 24% in July 2022 and previous expectations of the party's success. Regional parliamentary elections will also take place in Hamburg (2 March). Bündnis 90 / Die Grünen is currently in coalition with the SPD in Hamburg and they will be looking to remain in government without adding any additional government partners.
In Liechtenstein, national parliamentary elections will be held on 9 February. Freie Liste, a Green party that has cooperated with EGP members and applied to join the EGP in the 1990s, looks set to win around 12% of the vote, on par with the 12.9% of the vote it received in 2021. Freie Liste has said that it is open to entering government. While the centre-right FBP (affiliated with the Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe Party) has said it is open to governing with all parties, the combined strength of other conservative parties and the relatively small size of Freie Liste may hinder its chances of entering government.
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Norway will elect a new parliament on 8 September. EGP member Miljøpartiet De Grønne is currently polling at about 3% of the vote, a slight decrease from the 3.9% of the vote it received in 2021. However, if current polling holds, right-of-centre parties look set to form the next government and Miljøpartiet De Grønne looks set to remain in opposition. Miljøpartiet De Grønne aims to receive more than 4% of the vote so as to be entitled to compensatory levelling seats, not just seats allocated in multi-member constituencies.
Green parties struggle for relevance in Eastern European parliamentary elections
On 9 February, Kosovo will also hold national parliamentary elections. However, the European Greens have no member party in the country.
The Moldovan national parliamentary election will be held sometime in 2025. EGP member Partidul Verde Ecologist got less than 0.1% in the 2021 Moldovan election and is not relevant enough to appear in the Europe Elects current polling average.
Albanian EGP member Partia e Gjelbër has not contested the last two Albanian national parliamentary elections (though they did contest elections at the municipal level). It is unclear whether they will contest the national parliamentary elections on 11 May.
Czechs will also vote in national parliamentary elections in 2025. However, EGP member Zelení - Strana zelených is currently polling at 2%, below the 5% threshold needed for a party to enter the lower house of the national parliament, the Chamber of Deputies (Poslanecká sněmovna Parlamentu České republiky). Zelení - Strana zelených currently does not have parliamentary representation.
2025 presidential elections: a difficult threshold to cross
In Belarus, presidential elections were held on 26 January, but no Green candidate run. Belarusian elections are neither free nor fair, and EGP party member Bielaruskaja Partyja Zialonye was forcibly liquidated in 2023 by the Supreme Court acting on behalf of the Belarusian government. The leader of Bielaruskaja Partyja Zialonye has now been sentenced to six years in prison.
In the 2025 re-run of the Romanian presidential election (first round) on 4 May, Romanians likely won't have a Green presidential candidate. EGP member Partidul Verde looks likely to not endorse a candidate (as it did in the first round of the now annulled election) if no new candidates run. The 2024 vote has been annulled after the Constitutional Court found that a Russian influence operation had impacted the vote.
Partidul Verde subsequently endorsed liberal Eleana Lasconi in the second round of elections against far-right candidate Călin Georgescu.
By October 2025, Ireland will have elected a new president. There has been some speculation about potential candidates as no one has officially announced their candidacy, but no Green candidate has been discussed publicly as a contender for the largely ceremonial role. Given that the Irish Greens, an EGP member, do not have many councillors and only have one MP, they would likely struggle to comply with the requirements, namely having the support of either 20 members of the Oireachtas (the bicameral Irish parliament) or four local authorities, to nominate a presidential candidate successfully.
Greece will also elect a president by March 2025. However, the candidate will be nominated by Kyriakos Mitsotakis, prime minister of Greece (and European Council member), and voted on by the Greek national parliament. Oikologoi Prasinoi, a Green party that was the Greek EGP member until their membership rights were suspended on 2 Dec 2023, are not in parliament and cannot nominate a candidate.
Opportunities for success in 2025: Croatia and Poland
On 12 January, Croatians voted in the second round of their presidential elections, but they could not vote for a Green president. Ivana Kekin was the first presidential candidate for EGP member Možemo; however, she came in 4th place, with 9.0% of the vote, and was eliminated. Her result roughly mirrors the support (9.1% of the vote) that Možemo got in the 2024 national parliamentary elections and is higher than the 5.9% of the vote Možemo got in the 2024 European parliamentary elections. Centre-left SDP (Social Democrats) supported candidate Zoran Milanović, also endorsed by Možemo, who won in the second round of voting. Croatians will also vote in local and regional elections in May. Možemo will be looking to retain its control of the Zagreb Assembly and remain the largest party in the assembly. Zagreb's mayor and co-leader of Možemo, Tomislav Tomašević, is also running for re-election – after winning a landslide victory in 2021.
On 18 May, the first round of the Polish presidential election will occur. EGP member Zieloni, a part of the centrist political alliance Civic Coalition led by Prime Minister (and European Council member) Donald Tusk, has endorsed Warsaw’s Mayor Rafał Trzaskowski. Trzaskowski won the Civic Coalition presidential primary in November 2024. He looks likely to beat national-conservative PiS (Conservative) candidate historian Karol Nawrocki, according to current polling).
Elections following Green’s 2024 electoral successes
On 1 May, some parts of the United Kingdom will go to the polls to elect local councillors and regional mayors (though some local elections may be postponed due to a reorganisation of local councils). The Green party of England and Wales, an EGP member, will be contesting councils after their best ever general election performance. In 2025, the councils up for election are seen to be less 'Green-friendly' because they will mostly be contested in rural rather than urban areas. However, recent Green council victories in rural areas mean they will be viewed as a threat by the Conservatives (no European political party affiliation, but a member of the European Conservatives Group and Democratic Alliance in the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe), as well as the Labour Party (social democrats).
In France, French voters will vote in two by-elections in Isère and Hauts-de-Seine, triggered by the resignation of two deputies: Hugo Prevost (La France Insoumise - Left-wing) and Stéphane Séjourné. However, while EGP member Les Écologistes won 25 seats, their best electoral performance ever, in last year's French national parliamentary elections, Les Écologistes look unlikely to win either of the two by-elections. In Isère, Les Écologistes did not compete in 2024, standing down for La France Insoumise because of a left-wing electoral pact, which will continue in 2025. Meanwhile, Les Écologistes did make it to the second round in Hauts-de-Seine in 2024; however, they only got 27.3% of the vote compared to Renaissance's (liberals) 72.6%, a tall order to overcome.
Other local and regional elections
In Austria, Burgenland already elected a regional parliament on 19 January. The centre-left SPÖ (social democrats) is governing alone in Burgenland, but EGP member Die Grünen has signalled that it would like to enter government with SPÖ. Die Grünen got 5.7% of the vote, less than the 6.7% they got in 2020. However, they surpassed the 4% threshold required to enter the parliament and received enough support to form a coalition with SPÖ. In the region of Vienna, Die Grünen got 14.8% of the vote in the last 2020 state elections (their best result ever). However, the SPÖ decided to get into government with Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum (Liberals) instead, despite Die Grünen's success. 2025 may be another opportunity for Die Grünen to enter a state government in Austria, but this currently seems unlikely given that in both regions, the SPÖ has preferred other coalition partners.
In Italy, six regional elections will likely take place in 2025. EGP member Verdi usually contests elections as part of centre-left coalitions. However, out of the six regional parliaments up for election in 2025, Verdi currently holds a singular seat (out of 51) in both Veneto and Campania.
There are also local and regional elections scheduled to happen in Azerbaijan, Armenia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Georgia, Kosovo, Latvia, North Macedonia, Portugal, Russia and Switzerland. Elections in Azerbaijan and Russia are also planned but are neither free nor fair, with results likely being mostly fabricated by each regime. Besides, head-of-state elections are scheduled in San Marino, but the European Greens have no representation in the country. Guernsey elects a new parliament, too, but no European Green Party member is registered in the self-governing British Crown dependency.
2025 will provide a series of electoral tests for European Green Party members. While some European Green parties struggle for relevance, a handful of parties have a credible chance to enter national and local governments.
A complete list of election dates can be accessed here: https://europeelects.eu/calendar.
Sections of this article were reviewed by Europe Elects country experts: Lovro Morovic (Croatia), Matthias Troude (France), Mingo Garscha (Austria), Jan Jakob Langer (Germany), Andrei Miclea (Romania), Tomos Stokes (Albania), Stefan Negu (Moldova), Polychronis Karampelas (Greece), Roman Broszkowski (Belarus) Eoghan Kelly (Ireland), Nasha Gagnebin (Liechtenstein), Matthew Nicolson (England), Jakub Rogowiecki (Poland), Kryštof Křejpský (Czech Republic), Antonio Modeo and Tobias Gerhard Schminke (overall).
The views and opinions in this article do not necessarily reflect those of the Heinrich-Böll-Stiftung European Union.
