Although the Windsor Framework was broadly welcomed in Northern Ireland as a way of avoiding the alarming prospect of a hard border with the Republic or Ireland, the Stormont Assembly is still suspended. This means the devolved government is unable to take any significant decisions. Amanda Ferguson explains why and looks at what happens next.
The political landscape on the island of Ireland is changing. Twenty-five years after the Good Friday (Belfast) Agreement—negotiated between the British and Irish governments and brokered by the US—ended decades of violence in Northern Ireland, it is a post-conflict society but remains a contested place.
And conversations about its constitutional future, and the prospect of reunification with the Republic of Ireland, have accelerated post-Brexit. At the Northern Ireland Assembly (Stormont) election in May 2022, Sinn Féin, whose purpose is to reunify the island, emerged as the largest party for the first time.
To those who want to maintain the union with Britain, this was a major psychological blow. Sinn Féin is the former political wing of the Irish Republican Army (IRA). Northern Ireland was created 102 years ago with an inbuilt British unionist majority. Now its biggest political party believes in a united Ireland.
Sinn Féin’s historic success was replicated in May 2023 at the local council elections when they again beat their unionist rivals, the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP), into second place. Yet the regional devolved government at Stormont, which has limited financial decision-making powers from Westminster but has responsibility for areas such as health, justice, and education, remains collapsed. Local councils continue to collect bins and maintain parks and leisure centres, and planning applications are processed, but no meaningful decisions can be taken.
Why is Stormont paralysed?
The peace process is imperfect. Northern Ireland’s politics is often dysfunctional, complicated and at times contradictory. While Sinn Féin, and the Alliance Party (which does not take a constitutional position and has become the third major electoral force in Northern Ireland) did not back Brexit, the DUP did. It is objecting to the post-Brexit trading arrangements for Northern Ireland being different to Britain’s.
Essentially, Northern Ireland remains part of the EU’s Single Market for goods in order to respect the delicate balance of the Good Friday Agreement (GFA) and avoid a ‘hard border’ on the island. Over 3,700 lives were lost during the conflict between republican and loyalist paramilitaries and state forces. The DUP argues that the ‘protocol’ and subsequent Windsor Framework agreed between the EU and the UK in March 2023 damages Northern Ireland’s economic and constitutional position.
The majority of Stormont political parties disagree. They view the protocol as mitigating against the worst impacts of Brexit and providing Northern Ireland with opportunities that flow from dual market access.
The Good Friday Agreement is very clear about Northern Ireland’s constitutional status.
It remains part of the UK unless people vote for Irish unity, or what is often described as ‘a new Ireland’, in a border poll referendum. The conversations about when and in what circumstances that border poll takes place are advancing at kitchen tables, in the pub, through the media and academia, and in the development of civic society groups such as Ireland’s Future and the New Ireland Commission.
In response, pro-union groups such as Together UK, fronted by GB News presenter and former DUP leader Baroness Arlene Foster, are exploring how to sell the benefits of Northern Ireland’s place in the UK.
Meanwhile, in the Republic of Ireland, polling also indicates Sinn Féin is poised to become the largest party, and possibly form the next government under Mary Lou McDonald at its next general election in 2025. The old certainties of the past no longer exist.
What happens next?
Up to this point DUP supporters have largely backed the position the party is taking on boycotting Stormont. They share concerns about the protocol and want the DUP to extract assurances from the UK government that, if it diverges from EU law in the future, Northern Ireland won’t be ‘left behind’.
But the impasse means that for now Stormont is being run by unelected civil servants with limited powers. The list of problems for services and society is growing, and so far the UK government has only intervened in limited areas such as the budget, organ donation, and relationship and sex education legislation.
One school of thought suggests that DUP politicians are divided on power sharing, and that the boycott is less about the post-Brexit reality and more to do with it no longer being the largest party. Sir Jeffrey Donaldson’s party rejects this suggestion, and says it has no problem with Sinn Féin’s Michelle O’Neill becoming First Minister.
The UK government does not appear to be in a hurry to introduce legislation to ‘protect Northern Ireland’s place in the UK internal market’, as the DUP has asked for, and all the Stormont parties continue to discuss the detail of a plan to transform how Northern Ireland is run, which would require a £1bn+ financial package from Westminster.
The focus will soon shift to the autumn when a new Stormont term is due to start, and when a major Northern Ireland investment conference is scheduled. The DUP is the only block on power sharing at present, and when the pressure is on, what it will choose to do—and when– is unclear. The latest impasse is not sustainable, so if the party is not willing to share power at Stormont further questions will be raised about what happens next.
