Future of Europe

Friedrich Merz’s popularity is plummeting, and Germany’s ruling parties are fighting for survival. But now isn’t the time to focus on the fate of individuals and political groupings: Europe needs to be made fit for its new geopolitical reality.

Signs of a more assertive Europe emerge through flexible coalitions, enhanced cooperation, and renewed political confidence in Brussels. In our Böll EU Newsletter 02/2026 we look at at emerging “coalitions of the willing”, debates on pragmatic federalism, and proposals for a European Security Council, as well as our recent publications and upcoming events.

2026 is shaping up to be an extraordinary electoral year in Europe and for the European Greens. Opinion polls indicate that national parliamentary elections could reshape governments in countries ranging from Denmark and Latvia to Slovenia. The most consequential contest may take place in Hungary, where a potential defeat of long-time right-wing leader Viktor Orbán could result in a more assertive European Union. At the regional level, the Greens face a key test in Baden-Württemberg, where they have led the state government for more than a decade. 

A majority of citizens in Germany have a positive view of the new federal government‘s pledge for a stronger leadership role in the EU, but clearly advocate for doing so in a cooperative manner. These findings come from the latest edition of our long-term study 'Actually European!?' on Germany’s role in the EU.

The European Union is not merely facing a series of overlapping crises, but the simultaneous unravelling of the geopolitical, economic, and democratic orders that have long underpinned its stability and global role. This moment of systemic disruption poses a stark question: can Europe move from being an object of global shifts to becoming a subject that actively shapes the emerging world order?

Following the change of government in 2023, Poland once again faces a historic crossroads. An emotionally charged election campaign reflects deep social divisions – and the struggle for the country's future.

With a new CDU/CSU–SPD coalition government in Berlin, the future direction of Germany's EU policy is in the spotlight. As the largest EU Member State, any shift in Berlin will inevitably echo across Europe. There are a lot of hopes and expectations and of course challenges that this coalition government will have to navigate. We asked Chantal Kopf MdB, the Europe Spokesperson for the German Green Parliamentary Group in the Bundestag, what this new coalition means for the EU.

It's not just about money. We can be the innovative and cultural magnet of the world. That is the strength of democratic and open societies.

On 11 May 2025, Albania will hold parliamentary elections, the first since officially opening EU accession negotiations. While some significant changes mark this election—most notably, diaspora voting and partial candidate list openness—major systemic factors remain unchanged. The Socialist Party (SP), in power since 2013, appears poised for an unprecedented fourth mandate.

What a show these last couple of weeks have been. The return of Donald Trump, the rupture of the German federal government, and then the ridicule of the Commissioner-designate hearings in the European Parliament. Challenges are rising, but stable majorities in Europe are eroding. It is increasingly difficult to build consensus and have a stable centre of political gravity.

On 18 July 2024, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen was elected for a second mandate and presented to the European Parliament her Political Guidelines for the next European Commission. A new European Commission will kick-off its work on 1 December 2024, after its approval by the European Parliament. We take a look at von der Leyen's promises for the first 100 days (and beyond) of the new European Commission.

This series of policy papers provides impetus for the EU reform debate to make the European Union more effective, democratic, ecological and socially just. Our conclusion: Germany can play a decisive role in a successful reform process. 

We are in the midst of a fundamental global political and economic re-ordering. Revisionist states are challenging the geopolitical order and questioning the territorial status quo in Europe and Asia. Economic competition on the world market is fierce, as evidenced by the struggles of traditional European industrial powerhouses such as Volkswagen and ThyssenKrupp. Cracks in the foundations of European prosperity are emerging. The days when Europe could outsource its security to the Americans, benefit from cheap Russian energy, and easily sell its goods to the world are ending. Europe needs to rethink its foundations. This means investing in decarbonisation, digitalisation, and defence. But this cannot be done on the cheap.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen tasked Mario Draghi, former President of the European Central Bank and former Italian Prime Minister, to write a comprehensive report on the state of the European economy. In this long-awaited report, the Italian economist provides a substantive analysis on how a changing geopolitical landscape, an energy shock, demographic change, climate change, and international competition put stress on the European economy and the European social model. We asked Sander Tordoir, Chief Economist at the Centre for European Reform, for his first reactions to the report.

How do the results affect the work of the newly elected European Parliament? What are the opportunities and risks? What are the key priorities for the Greens/EFA? What challenges can be identified with regard to the composition and agenda of the new European Commission? What impact did the election have in individual member states, particularly in Germany, France and Poland? With: Terry Reintke, lead candidate of the European Green Party and Bündnis 90/Die Grünen; Co-Chair of the Greens/EFA Group; Roderick Kefferpütz, Director, EU office, Heinrich-Böll-Stiftung Brussels; Marc Berthold, Director, Heinrich-Böll-Stiftung Paris; Joanna Maria Stolarek, Director, Heinrich-Böll-Stiftung Warsaw. Moderation:  Eva van de Rakt, Head of European Union and North America Division, Heinrich-Böll-Stiftung, Berlin.

As part of an EU Democracy research project funded by the Heinrich-Böll-Stiftung European Union office, Sophie Pornschlegel interviewed European Commission Vice-President for Values and Transparency, Věra Jourová, during the summer break of the European Commission. In their conversation, Vice-President Jourová reflected on five years of efforts to safeguard democracy, human rights and the rule of law in the EU, amid increasing threats against democracy and a shifting geopolitical context, not least due to Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine. 

Habemus presidentem: With 401 votes in favour, the European Parliament has reconfirmed Ursula von der Leyen as the president of the European Commission. This vote was not a given. Unable to rely on the support of the super grand coalition of conservatives, social democrats, and liberals alone, von der Leyen went out of her way to secure Green votes in particular.

The European Parliament elections might be over, but that doesn’t mean that the constellation of power in the EU is all set in stone. In this episode, we’re looking at what the European election result means for the EU and the future of the Green Deal, how the Greens in the European Parliament are doing, what their priorities are and whether the Greens just might be a new power broker that’s necessary for the conservatives, social democrats and liberals to hold a stable majority. Roderick Kefferpütz, Director of the Heinrich-Böll-Stiftung's EU office, discusses this with Bas Eickhout, long-standing Member of the European Parliament from the Dutch Greens, and Co-Chair of the Greens/EFA Group.

Europe has voted! The new European Parliament will shape the future trajectory of the European Union. The election results will not only influence the constellation of the next European Commission. They will also affect future EU policies such as democracy, climate, economy and social affairs. In this context, we discussed what are the main takeaways from the EP election results, what political groups will be formed, what majorities are possible, and what potential political alliances can be foreseen, and what does this mean for key issues such as the green transformation as well as the EU’s reform and enlargement agenda. With: Jan Philipp Albrecht, Prof. Simon Hix, Joanna Maria Stolarek, Dietrich Herrmann, Marc Berthold, Michalis Goudis, Nóra Köves, Armida van Rij, Mar Garcia Sanz, and Roderick Kefferpütz.

After the European elections, the democratic and pro-European forces in the European Parliament (EP) have been weakened. They must make cooperation much more binding in order to ensure reliable majorities for an effective EU.